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Fiscal Crises
Gerling, Kerstin - 2017
A key objective of fiscal policy is to maintain the sustainability of public finances and avoid crises. Remarkably, there is very limited analysis on fiscal crises. This paper presents a new database of fiscal crises covering different country groups, including low-income developing countries...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012956473
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Sovereign Debt Markets in Turbulent Times : Creditor Discrimination and Crowding-Out
Broner, Fernando - 2014
In 2007, countries in the Euro periphery were enjoying stable growth, low deficits, and low spreads. Then the financial crisis erupted and pushed them into deep recessions, raising their deficits and debt levels. By 2010,they were facing severe debt problems. Spreads increased and, surprisingly,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013059093
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Sovereign Debt Repatriation During Crises
Arslanalp, Serkan; Sunder-Plassmann, Laura - 2022
We use a new, comprehensive data set on the sovereign debt investor base to document three novel empirical facts: (i) sovereign debt is repatriated - that is, shifted from external private to domestic investors - prior to sovereign defaults; (ii) not all crises are equal: evidence for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013288911
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A Financial Conditions Index for Greece
Manning, Jonathan - 2015
We construct a Financial Conditions Index (FCI) for Greece as a surveillance tool to quantify the degree of the stress … (EA) as a whole and show that although the developments in the EA were qualitatively in line with those in Greece, they … were quantitatively much milder. Our results confirm that monetary transmission was less effective in Greece compared to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013012447
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Transmission of Financial Stress in Europe : The Pivotal Role of Italy and Spain, But Not Greece
González-Hermosillo, Brenda - 2014
Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Spain and Portugal. The stability ofGermany is a close proxy for the resilience of the euro … to theirrelative importance in the region. Changes in Greece's sovereign CDS had no significant effect on Germany …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013053040
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Bunching at 3 Percent : The Maastricht Fiscal Criterion and Government Deficits
Caselli, Francesca - 2018
This paper estimates the effects of the Maastricht treaty's fiscal criterion on EU countries' general government deficits. We combine treatment effects methods with bunching estimation, and find that the 3 percent deficit rule acts as a 'magnet', increasing the number of observations around the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012912484
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Fiscal Politics in the Euro Area
Eyraud, Luc - 2017
This paper provides evidence of fiscal procyclicality, excessive deficits, distorted budget composition and poor compliance with fiscal rules in the euro area. Our analysis relies on real-time data for 19 countries participating in the euro area over 1999-2015. We look for, but do not find,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012960584
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Predicting Fiscal Crises
Cerovic, Svetlana - 2018
This paper identifies leading indicators of fiscal crises based on a large sample of countries at different stages of development over 1970-2015. Our results are robust to different methodologies and sample periods. Previous literature on early warning sistems (EWS) for fiscal crises is scarce...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012912485
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Equity Returns in the Banking Sector in the Wake of the Great Recession and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis
Chan-Lau, Jorge A. - 2012
This study finds that equity returns in the banking sector in the wake of the Great Recession and the European sovereign debt crisis have been driven mainly by weak growth prospects and heightened sovereign risk and to a lesser extent, by deteriorating funding conditions and investor sentiment....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013098630
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Friend or Foe? Cross-Border Linkages, Contagious Banking Crises, and 'Coordinated' Macroprudential Policies
Choi, Seung Mo - 2018
This paper examines whether the coordinated use of macroprudential policies can help lessen the incidence of banking crises. It is well-known that rapid domestic credit growth and house price growth positively influence the chances of a banking crisis. As well, a crisis in other countries with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012928012