Barnett, William A.; Chauvet, Marcelle - In: Journal of Econometrics 161 (2011) 1, pp. 6-23
This paper explores the disconnect of Federal Reserve data from index number theory. A consequence could have been the decreased-systemic-risk misperceptions that contributed to excess risk-taking prior to the housing bust. We find that most recessions in the past 50 years were preceded by more...