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We show that quot;commodity currencyquot; exchange rates have remarkably robust power in predicting global commodity prices, both in-sample and out-of-sample, and against a variety of alternative benchmarks. This result is of particular interest to policymakers, given the lack of deep forward...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012759436
environment, leading to real-time forecast improvements relative to other methods of density forecast combination, such as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013045643
Inflation targeting is shown to imply inflation forecast targeting: the central bank's inflation forecast becomes an … explicit intermediate target. Inflation forecast targeting simplifies both implementation and monitoring of monetary policy …. The weight on output stabilization determines how quickly the inflation forecast is adjusted towards the inflation target …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013125561
approximating strict inflation-forecast targeting are likely to have undesirable properties. We also show that economies with more … general forecast-based policy rules are particularly susceptible to indeterminacy of rational expectations equilibria. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013230778
stabilization or smoothing all call for a more gradual adjustment of the conditional inflation forecast toward the inflation target …. The conditional inflation forecast is the natural intermediate target during inflation targeting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013232903
Within the context of conditional asset allocation strategies, this paper explores the implications of the low correlations of the emerging market returns with developed market returns and the relatively high degree predictability of emerging countries' returns. It is well known that low...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763465
This paper empirically examines multifactor asset pricing models for the returns and expected returns on eighteen national equity markets. The factors are chosen to measure global economic risks. Although previous studies do not reject the unconditional mean- variance efficiency of a world...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763466
We analyze optimal monetary policy when asset prices influence aggregate demand with a lag (as is well documented). In this context, as long as the central bank's main objective is to minimize the output gap, the central bank optimally induces asset price overshooting in response to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012824916
Monetary policy shocks have a large impact on stock returns in narrow windows around press releases by the Federal Reserve. We use spatial autoregressions to decompose the overall effect of monetary policy shocks into a direct effect and an indirect (network) effect. We attribute 50%-85% of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012955942
This paper is about the effectiveness of qualitative easing, a form of unconventional monetary policy that changes the risk composition of the central bank balance sheet with the goal of stabilizing economic activity. We construct a general equilibrium model where agents have rational...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012995518