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What is the Risk of European Sovereign Debt Defaults? Fiscal Space, CDS Spreads and Market Pricing of Risk

Aizenman, Joshua - 2011

We estimate the pricing of sovereign risk for sixty countries based on fiscal space (debt/tax; deficits/tax) and other … and economically important determinants of market-based sovereign risk. Although the explanatory power of fiscal space … emergence of TED spread as a key pricing factor. However, risk-pricing of the South-West Eurozone Periphery countries is not …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461251

Fiscal Stimulus and Commercial Bank Lending Under COVID-19

Aizenman, Joshua; Jinjarak, Yothin; Spiegel, Mark - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

We investigate the implications of extra-normal government spending under the COVID-19 pandemic for commercial bank lending growth between 2019Q4 and 2020Q4 in a large sample of over 3000 banks from 71 countries. We control for pre-pandemic structural factors, bank characteristics and government...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013172181

Pandemic Shocks and Fiscal-Monetary Policies in the Eurozone : COVID-19 Dominance During January - June 2020

Jinjarak, Yothin - 2020

announcements, rather than traditional determinants like fiscal space and systematic risk, drove CDS adjustment over this period … mitigate the short-run fear of the worst economic outcomes, temporarily pushing away concerns over fiscal risk …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481646

International Evidence of Strengthening Taxes and Spending For Sustainable Development

Aizenman, Joshua; Jinjarak, Yothin; Hien Nguyen; Park, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021

We trace the linkages between the episodes of fiscal expansion and consolidation in 72 advanced and emerging and developing economies. The findings suggest that fiscal expansions are positively associated with economic growth, which in turn is positively linked with better sustainable...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012794621

Large Fiscal Episodes and Sustainable Development : Some International Evidence

Aizenman, Joshua; Jinjarak, Yothin; Nguyen, Hien Thi Kim; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021

This paper examines the association between episodes of large fiscal impulses (expansions and adjustments) and sustainable development indicators (prosperity, resilience, and inclusivity). We provide country studies of Chile, Poland, South Africa, and Thailand, examining the components of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012510619

Capital Controls in Brazil - Stemming a Tide with a Signal?

Jinjarak, Yothin - 2013

Controls on capital inflows have been experiencing a renaissance since 2008, with several prominent emerging markets implementing them. We focus on Brazil, which instituted five changes in its capital account regime in 2008-2011. Using the synthetic control method, we construct counterfactuals...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459458

Accounting for Global COVID-19 Diffusion Patterns, January-April 2020

Jinjarak, Yothin - 2020

Key factors in modeling a pandemic and guiding policy-making include mortality rates associated with infections; the ability of government policies, medical systems, and society to adapt to the changing dynamics of a pandemic; and institutional and demographic characteristics affecting citizens'...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481768

Good-Bye Original Sin, Hello Risk On-Off, Financial Fragility, and Crises?

Aizenman, Joshua - 2020

We analyze the sovereign bond issuance data of eight major emerging markets (EMs) - Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, South Africa and Turkey from 1970 to 2018. Our analysis suggests that (i) EM local currency bonds tend to be smaller in size, shorter in maturity, or lower in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481987

The Political Economy of the COVID-19 Fiscal Stimulus Packages of 2020

Aizenman, Joshua; Jinjarak, Yothin; Nguyen, Hien Thi Kim; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021

Almost all countries announced fiscal support programs once COVID-19 hit. However, there was significant diversity in the magnitude and composition of these fiscal stimulus programs. These differences were determined by myriad political, financial, social, and economic factors - these factors...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012660038

A Two Covid-19 Years Quartile Comparison of Official with Excess Mortality : Voice and Accountability and the Impact of Vaccines

Aizenman, Joshua - 2022

We evaluate the quartile ranking of countries during the Covid-19 pandemic using both official (i.e., confirmed) and excess mortality data. Contrasting countries' rankings using these two data sources reveal sharp and systematic differences. While higher GDP per capita is associated with a worse...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012938747