shock to the sector - a measure of the systemic risk of each sector. Tail centrality is theoretically and empirically very … downstream closeness to final production. The paper then uses the results to analyze the determinants of total tail risk in the … economy to small shocks while increasing the sensitivity to large shocks. Tail risk is strongest in economies that display …

This paper measures the effects of the risk of war on nine U.S. financial variables using a heteroskedasticity …-based estimation technique. The results indicate that increases in the risk of war cause declines in Treasury yields and equity prices …, a widening of lower-grade corporate spreads, a fall in the dollar, and a rise in oil prices. This war risk factor …

of the World (ROW) is developed to quantify capital controls and evaluate their impact on the world economy. We find … these controls had large effects. Counterfactual analysis show world output would have been 0:5 percent higher had there …

the US, China, and rest of world. On average, countries decreased exports to China and increased exports to the US and … rest of world. Most countries export products that complement the US and substitute China, and a subset operate along …