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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013190466
sectoral regional inflation rates and exhibits much less volatility than previous findings for the US indicate. We further …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009006626
This paper sheds light on the impact of global macroeconomic uncertainty on the euro area economy. We build on the methodology proposed by Jurado et al. (2015) and estimate global as well as country-specific measures of economic uncertainty for fifteen key euro area trade partners and the euro...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012503567
We build a dynamic factor model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility and use it to decompose the … common global uncertainty plays a primary role in explaining the volatility of inflation, interest rates and stock prices …, although to a varying extent over time. Region-specific uncertainty drives most of the exchange rate volatility for all Euro …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011856363
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003357819
Implied volatility indices should have information about risk parameters, once they are cleansed of the influence of … normal volatility dynamics and macroeconomic uncertainty. Building on intuition from the dynamic asset pricing literature, we … while controlling for realized volatility, expectations about the macroeconomic outlook, and interest rates. We apply this …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003832589
There has been much discussion of the differences in macroeconomic performance and prospects between the US, Japan and the euro area. Using Markov-switching techniques, in this paper we identify and compare specifically their major business-cycle features and examine the case for a common...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635889
This paper analyses the information content of M1 for euro area real GDP since the beginning of the 1980s and reviews theoretical arguments on why real narrow money should help predict real GDP. We find that, unlike in the U.S., in the euro area, M1 has better and more robust forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635922
This paper studies the relationship between the business cycle and financial intermediation in the euro area. We establish stylized facts and study their stability during the global financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis. Long-term interest rates have been exceptionally high and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011959310
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001900368