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Using a long-term interest rate as the monetary policy instrument

McGough, Bruce; Rudebusch, Glenn D.; Williams, John C. - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco - 2004

Using a short-term interest rate as the monetary policy instrument can be problematic near its zero bound constraint. An alternative strategy is to use a long-term interest rate as the policy instrument. We find when Taylor-type policy rules are used to set the long rate in a standard New...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010702181

Robust monetary policy rules with unknown natural rates

Orphanides, Athanasios; Williams, John C. - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco - 2002

U.S. economy, estimated over the 1969-2002 period, we show that the cost of underestimating the extent of misperceptions …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010702184

Robust estimation and monetary policy with unobserved structural change

Williams, John C. - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco - 2004

the face of uncertainty regarding the process of structural change in the economy. Unobserved structural change is modeled …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010702198

The decline of activist stabilization policy: natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations

Orphanides, Athanasios; Williams, John C. - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco - 2003

We develop an estimated model of the U.S. economy in which agents form expectations by continually updating their … beliefs regarding the behavior of the economy and monetary policy. We explore the effects of policymakers' misperceptions of … and destabilized the economy. Had monetary policy reacted less aggressively to perceived unemployment gaps, inflation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010702201

Monetary policy under uncertainty in micro-founded macroeconometric models

Levin, Andrew T.; Onatski, Alexei; Williams, John C.; … - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco - 2005

central bank faces uncertainty about the true structure of the economy. We apply Bayesian methods to estimate the parameters …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010702242

The economy and Fed policy: follow the demand

Williams, John C. - In: FRBSF Economic Letter (2013)

The primary reason unemployment remains high is a lack of demand. An aggregate demand shortfall is exactly the kind of problem monetary policy can address. Thus, we need powerful and continuing monetary stimulus to move toward maximum employment and price stability. ; This letter is adapted from...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010722983

The slow recovery: it’s not just housing

Williams, John C. - In: FRBSF Economic Letter (2012)

States that were hit hard by the housing bust performed worse economically during the recession of 2007-09. However, the close relationship between the fall in home prices and state economic activity has largely disappeared during the recovery. High unemployment, restrained demand, and idle...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010722986

Monetary policy in uncertain times

Williams, John C. - In: FRBSF Economic Letter (2013)

The Federal Reserve has taken bold steps this past year, both in the approaches to stimulate the economy and the way it …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010722991

The outlook and monetary policy challenges

Williams, John C. - In: FRBSF Economic Letter (2012)

economy is weighed down by the ongoing European sovereign debt crisis and fiscal tightening in our own country. In these … circumstances, it is essential that the Federal Reserve provide sufficient monetary accommodation to keep our economy moving towards …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010722994

The economic outlook and Federal Reserve policy

Williams, John C. - In: FRBSF Economic Letter (2012)

Progress reducing unemployment has nearly stalled, while annual inflation has fallen below the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. To move toward maximum employment and price stability, the Fed recently announced plans to purchase more mortgage-backed securities and extend its commitment to keep its...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010723012