This paper presents two approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporary or a permanent phenomenon. The two approaches-the time series behavior of credit outstanding and a two-stage program selection and access...

Forty years ago, Marcus Fleming and Robert Mundell developed independent models of macroeconomic policy in open economies. Why do we link the two, and why do we call the result the Mundell-Fleming, rather than Fleming-Mundell model?

Many studies of the demand for money, covering a wide variety of economies, have demonstrated the importance of financial innovations and shifts in monetary policy regimes, but they have also illustrated the difficulty of measuring and assessing such changes. Because innovations and regime...

Much of the debate about the management of financial crises has focused on structural and psychological issues regarding the conditions that are supposed to be necessary to restore investor confidence. Nonetheless, the paramount requirement in the short term is for countries in crisis to adopt...

This paper examines the role of structural factors—governance and rule of law, corporate sector governance (creditor rights and shareholder rights), corporate financing structure—as well as macroeconomic variables in currency crises. Using a technique known as a binary recursive tree allows...

Uncertainty about the export earnings accruing to a country (sometimes referred to as export instability) is an important source of macroeconomic uncertainty in many developing countries. Theory predicts that countries should react to increases in this form of uncertainty by increasing their...

Sharp exchange rate depreciations in the East Asian crisis countries (Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand) raised doubts about the efficacy of increasing interest rates to defend the currency. Using a standard monetary model of exchange rate determination, this paper shows that tighter monetary...

IMF lending is generally conditional on specified policies and outcomes. These conditions usually are negotiated compromises between policies initially favored by the Fund and by the country's authorities. In some cases the authorities might be satisfied enough with the outcome to take...

Harry Dexter White, the principal architect of the international financial system established at the end of the Second World War, was arguably the most important U. S. government economist of the 20th century. His reputation, however, has suffered because of allegations that he spied for the...

Egypt’s nationalization of the Suez Canal in 1956 and the failed attempt by France, Israel, and Britain to retake it by force constituted a serious political crisis with significant economic consequences. For the United Kingdom, it engendered a financial crisis as well. That all four of the...