the failure of financial modeling. More specifically, current risk models have failed to properly assess the risks … over prevailing models for evaluating stock market risk exposure during distressed market periods. -- ARMA-GARCH model ; α …-stable distribution ; tempered stable distribution ; value-at-risk (VaR) ; average value-at-risk (AVaR) …

for improving our understanding of the risk of hedge funds. At the same time, research has sprung up that applies standard … performance and risk assessment. After constructing Bayesian estimators for alpha-stable distributions in the context of an ARMA …-GARCH time series model with stable innovations, we compare our risk evaluation and prediction results to the predictions of …