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Optimality and diversifiability of mean variance and arbitrage pricing portfolios
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Zaffaroni, Paolo - 2009
This paper investigates the limit properties of mean-variance (mv) and arbitrage pricing (ap) trading strategies using a general dynamic factor model, as the number of assets diverge to infinity. It extends the results obtained in the literature for the exact pricing case to two other cases of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003910456
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Optimal asset allocation with factor models for large portfolios
Pesaran, M. Hashem (contributor);  … - 2008
This paper characterizes the asymptotic behaviour, as the number of assets gets arbitrarily large, of the portfolio weights for the class of tangency portfolios belonging to the Markowitz paradigm. It is assumed that the joint distribution of asset returns is characterized by a general factor...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003720566
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Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconometric Modelling : An Application to the UK Economy
Garratt, Anthony; Lee, Kevin; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Shin, … - 2021
This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macroeconomic forecasts in a manner which is straightforward and which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013321125
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Model averaging in risk management with an application to futures markets
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Schleicher, Christoph; Zaffaroni, Paolo - In: Journal of empirical finance 16 (2009) 2, pp. 280-305
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003839329
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Forecasting economic and financial variables with global VARs
Pesaran, M. Hashem (contributor);  … - 2008
This paper considers the problem of forecasting real and financial macroeconomic variables across a large number of countries in the global economy. To this end, a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model previously estimated over the 1979:Q1–2003:Q4 period by Dees, de Mauro, Pesaran, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003781456
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A VECX* Model of the Swiss Economy
Assenmacher, Katrin - 2009
This paper applies the modelling strategy of Garratt, Lee, Pesaran and Shin (2003) to the estimation of a structural …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012766516
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Assessing Forecast Uncertainties in a VECX Model for Switzerland : An Exercise in Forecast Combination Across Models and Observation Windows
Assenmacher, Katrin - 2009
We investigate the effect of forecast uncertainty in a cointegrating vector error correction model for Switzerland. Forecast uncertainty is evaluated in three different dimensions. First, we investigate the effect on forecasting performance of averaging over forecasts from different models....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012766904
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Model Averaging in Risk Management with an Application to Futures Markets
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Schleicher, Christoph; Zaffaroni, Paolo - 2021
This paper considers the problem of model uncertainty in the case of multi-asset volatility models and discusses the use of model averaging techniques as a way of dealing with the risk of inadvertently using false models in portfolio management. Evaluation of volatility models is then considered...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316571
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An Empirical Growth Model for Major Oil Exporters
Esfahani, Hadi Salehi - 2012
-run output equation with a coefficient equal to the share of capital (α). The long-run theory is tested using quarterly data on … results support the long-run theory. The existence of long-run relations between real output, foreign output and real oil … steadily over the past three decades, the theory suggests that the effect of oil income on the economy's steady state growth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013107701
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Optimality and Diversifiability of Mean Variance and Arbitrage Pricing Portfolios
Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2009
This paper investigates the limit properties of mean-variance (mv) and arbitrage pricing (ap) trading strategies using a general dynamic factor model, as the number of assets diverge to infinity. It extends the results obtained in the literature for the exact pricing case to two other cases of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013153425