Inversion of the yield curve has come to be viewed as a leading recession indicator. Unsurprisingly, some recent instances of inversion have attracted attention from economic commentators and policymakers about possible impending recessions. Using a variety of time series models and recent...

Our subject is the notion of automated discovery in econometrics. Advances in computer power, electronic communication, and data collection processes have all changed the way econometrics is conducted. These advances have helped to elevate the status of empirical research within the economics...

Causal relationships in econometrics are typically based on the concept of predictability and are established in terms of tests for Granger causality. These causal relationships are susceptible to change, especially during times of financial turbulence, making the real-time detection of...