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-herd and, thereby, tend to intentionally scatter their forecasts around the consensus forecast. The extent of anti … forecast accuracy. -- Housing starts ; Forecasting ; Herding …
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Using monthly data for the period 19532003, we apply a real-time modeling approach to investigate the implications of U.S. political stock market anomalies for forecasting excess stock returns. Our empirical findings show that political variables, selected on the basis of widely used model...
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-herd and thereby, tend to intentionally scatter their forecasts around the consensus forecast. The extent of anti-herding seems … to vary over time. For Canada and the United States, we found that more prounounced anti-herding leads to lower forecast …
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