This paper examines the effect of a change in U.S. trade policy on the domestic investment of U.S. manufacturers. Using a difference-in-differences identification strategy, we find that industries more exposed to reductions in import tariff uncertainty exhibit relative declines in investment...

This paper finds a link between the sharp drop in U.S. manufacturing employment beginning in 2001 and a change in U.S. trade policy that eliminated potential tariff increases on Chinese imports. Industries where the threat of tariff hikes declines the most experience more severe employment...

The recent election of President Donald Trump calls into question the United States’ future in international trade. During Trump’s campaign for office, he promised to attempt to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), and, if negotiations fail, withdraw from the...