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encompasses a general unrestricted model and it forecast encompasses the competitors when tested on 20 quarters of one step ahead …
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series models and distinguishes between different forecast horizons, HICP components and inflation measures. Various … indicate that aggregating forecasts by component does not necessarily help forecast year-on-year inflation twelve months …
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that the cyclical position and the form of fiscal governance are major determinants of forecast biases. Projected changes …
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business surveys data and to aggregate the nation-wide forecast into the Euro-zone forecast, we propose using an approach based …
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This paper examines whether data from business tendency surveys are useful for forecasting the macro economy (GDP, unemployment, price and wage inflation, interest rates, exchange-rate changes etc.) in the short run. The starting point is a so-called dynamic factor model (DFM), which is used...
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