We study belief formation in a large-scale experiment where participants forecast a stable random process, across a rich set of conditions. We have three main findings. First, the rational expectations hypothesis is strongly rejected and we find little evidence of learning over time. Second,...

We investigate biases in expectations across different settings through a large-scale randomized experiment where participants forecast stable stochastic processes. The experiment allows us to control forecasters’ information sets as well as the data generating process, so we can cleanly...