This paper defines a Beaufort Predictability Index, analogous to the Beaufort Wind Force Scale, to assist analysts in sizing up statistical prediction problems; for background we outline the career of Francis Beaufort and the genesis of his Wind Force Scale. We then describe the various versions...

Option pricing and allocation tools in portfolio construction should be prospective - based on assumptions about how prices will change in the future. Most capital market assumptions used in portfolio construction are based on retrospective analysis, boiling down to simple calculations of...

In an environment that features second-degree price discrimination, this paper fully characterizes the set of surplus divisions that can arise from all possible information consumers have about their valuation. By extending the techniques developed in a companion paper (Yang, 2019a), I show that...