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Global recessions and booms : what do probit models tell us?
Baumann, Ursel; Gómez Salvador, Ramón; Seitz, Franz - 2018
We present non-linear binary Probit models to capture the turning points in global economic activity as well as in advanced and emerging economies from 1980 to 2016. For that purpose, we use four different business cycle dating methods to identify the regimes (upswings, downswings). We find that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011865195
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The global impact of the systemic economies and MENA business cycles
Cashin, Paul A.; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Raissi, Mehdi - 2012
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009667111
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Global and domestic financial cycles : variations on a theme
Aldasoro, Iñaki; Avdjiev, Stefan; Borio, Claudio E. V.; … - 2020
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012238768
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Dynamics of global business cycles interdependence
Ductor, Lorenzo; Leiva-León, Danilo - 2015
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011420341
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The G7 business cycle in a globalized world
Carstensen, Kai; Salzmann, Leonard - 2016
, and inflation volatility, and in global macroeconomic indicators like the oil price, world stock market returns, and … exchange rate volatility. The results indicate that in a globalized world spillovers from emerging markets and industrial … countries other than the G7 play a relevant role for major aspects of the G7 and world business cycle. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011499802
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Measuring global real economic activity : do recent critiques hold up to scrutiny?
Kilian, Lutz - 2019
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012042022
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Global financial cycles since 1880
Potjagailo, Galina; Wolters, Maik H. - 2019
We analyze cyclical co-movement in credit, house prices, equity prices, and long-term interest rates across 17 advanced economies. Using a time-varying multi-level dynamic factor model and more than 130 years of data, we analyze the dynamics of co-movement at different levels of aggregation and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011987786
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What has caused global business cycle decoupling : smaller shocks or reduced sensitivity?
Berger, Tino; Richter, Julia - 2017
According to a growing body of empirical literature, global shocks have become less important for business cycles in industrialized countries and emerging market economies since the mid-1980s. In this paper, we analyze the question of what might have caused a decoupling from the global business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011584095
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The implications of global and domestic credit cycles for emerging market economies : measures of finance-adjusted output gaps
Grintzalis, Ioannis; Lodge, David; Manu, Ana-Simona - 2017
We present estimates of finance-adjusted output gaps which incorporate the information on the domestic and global credit cycles for a sample of emerging market economies (EMEs). Following recent BIS research, we use a state-space representation of an HP filter augmented with a measure of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011637326
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Global macro-financial cycles and spillovers
Ha, Jongrim; Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher M.; … - 2020
We develop a new dynamic factor model that allows us to jointly characterize global macroeconomic and financial cycles and the spillovers between them. The model decomposes macroeconomic cycles into the part driven by global and country-specific macro factors and the part driven by spillovers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012178610