We develop a pricing model for sovereign contingent convertible bonds (S-CoCo) with payment standstills triggered by a sovereign's credit default swap CDS spread. One innovation is the modeling of CDS spread regime switching which is prevalent during crises. Regime switching is modeled as a...

This paper uses a risk-management approach to re-profile the sovereign debt of countries facing debt crises. Using scenario analysis we develop a risk measure of the sovereign's debt -- Conditional Debt-at-Risk -- and an optimization model is used to trace risk profiles that tradeoff expected...

Debt restructuring is one of the policy tools available for resolving sovereign debt crises and, while unorthodox, it is not uncommon. We propose a scenario analysis for debt sustainability and integrate it with scenario optimization for risk management in restructuring sovereign debt. The...

We model sovereign debt sustainability with optimal financing decisions under macroeconomic, financial, and fiscal uncertainty, with endogenous risk and term premia. Using a coherent risk measure we trade off debt stock and flow risks subject to sustainability constraints. We optimize static and...