institutions in Germany and argue that violations of the rationality hypothesis are due to relatively few large forecast errors …

movements of key macroeconomic variables, i.e., CPI inflation, GDP, employment, and an output gap. In particular, questions … output gap and adds information to the benchmark forecasts for GDP and employment. …

failure to predict recessions. Around troughs, forecasters prioritize investment matters, potentially suggesting a better …

professional forecasts over the past 30 years for 34 advanced economies. We find that when employment rises unexpectedly …, forecasters typically raise their long-term forecasts of employment by more than one-for-one and also expect a strong rise in …-term effects on expected employment and labor force participation, suggesting positive hysteresis. Our forecast evaluation tests …

weights are given by Bayesian model averaging. In the case of forecasts on Germany’s real GDP growth rate, this new forecast …