This paper develops tests for comparing the accuracy of predictive densities derived from (possibly misspecified) diffusion models. In particular, we first outline a simple simulation-based framework for constructing predictive densities for one-factor and stochastic volatility models. We then...

We perform a series of Monte Carlo experiments in order to evaluate the impact of data transformation on forecasting models, and find that vector error-corrections dominate differenced data vector autoregressions when the correct data transformation is used, but not when data are incorrectly...

We review and construct consistent in-sample specification and out-of-sample model selection tests on conditional distributions and predictive densities associated with continuous multifactor (possibly with jumps) and (non)linear discrete models of the short term interest rate. The results of...

This paper gives a test of overidentifying restrictions that is robust to many instruments and heteroskedasticity. It is based on a jackknife version of the overidentifying test statistic. Correct asymptotic critical values are derived for this statistic when the number of instruments grows...