Inflation (PCCI), a measure of underlying inflation in the euro area. The PCCI reflects the view that underlying inflation … component of inflation. Methodologically, it relies on a generalised dynamic factor model estimated on a large set of … disaggregated HICP inflation rates for 12 euro area countries. For each individual inflation rate, we estimate a low …

more weight on alternative indicators of inflation pressure such as wage settlements, trends in unit labour costs and a … wide range of indicators of inflation expectations. The recent fall in margins observed in some countries may, for instance … States, the large unemployment gap could also keep wage inflation under pressure despite a flattening Phillips curve. These …

This report updates and extends earlier assessments of quantitative inflation perceptions and expectations of consumers … inflation are found to be higher than actual HICP (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices) inflation over the entire sample period … (2004-2015). The analysis shows that European consumers hold different opinions of inflation depending on their income, age …

A statistically significant relationship between the unemployment gap and inflation can be found for a clear majority … slack on inflation can often be dominated by other shocks, including imported inflation. The current Secretariat Phillips … curve specification assumes inflation expectations are anchored at the central bank’s target, although some experimentation …

Declining inflation in many countries over the past few decades at the same time as rising global competition has led … to a debate on the importance of globalisation for domestic inflation. This paper explores the implications of global … value chain (GVC) integration and market contestability for inflation using a range of industry-level and micro-data sources …

This paper assesses the OECD’s projections for GDP growth and inflation during the global financial crisis and recovery … the slowdown and later the weak pace of the recovery – errors made by many other forecasters. At the same time, inflation …