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Coherent price systems and uncertainty-neutral valuation : conference paper
Beißner, Patrick - 2013 - This version: 28 February, 2013
We consider fundamental questions of arbitrage pricing arising when the uncertainty model incorporates volatility … such sets when volatility uncertainty is modeled by a stochastic differential equation, driven by Peng's G-Brownian motion. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010338399
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A latent dynamic factor approach to forecasting multivariate stock market volatility : conference paper
Gribisch, Bastian - 2013
This paper proposes a latent dynamic factor model for low- as well as high-dimensional realized covariance matrices of stock returns. The approach is based on the matrix logarithm and allows for flexible dynamic dependence patterns by combining common latent factors driven by HAR dynamics and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010341025
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Identifying volatility signals from time-varying simultaneous stock market interaction : conference paper
Strohsal, Till; Weber, Enzo - 2013
In the academic literature, the economic interpretation of stock market volatility is inherently ambivalent, being … volatility-dependent cross-market spillovers. If higher volatility in one market leads to higher (lower) reactions in another … market, volatility reflects information (uncertainty). We introduce a simultaneous time-varying coefficient model, where …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010339937
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Financialization in commodity markets : disentangling the crisis from the style effect ; conference paper
Adams, Zeno; Glück, Thorsten - 2013
In this paper, we show that large inflows into commodity investments, a recent phenomenon known as financialization, has changed the behavior and dependence structure between commodities and the general stock market. The common perception is that the increase in comovements is the result of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010339396
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The relation between overreaction in forecasts and uncertainty : a nonlinear approach ; conference paper
Leppin, Julian Sebastian - 2014 - This version: February 2014
This paper examines if overreaction of oil price forecasters is affected by uncertainty. Furthermore, it takes into account joint effects of uncertainty and oil price returns on forecast changes. The panel smooth transition regression model from Gonz alez et al. (2005) is applied with univariate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010480543
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Essays on European agricultural and trade policies, and their effects on agricultural mrkets
Berger, Jurij - 2021
The Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union (CAP) has a long tradition. After World War II, agricultural and food production in Europe was substantially weakened and unable to provide sufficient food for the domestic population. The CAP emerged from this situation, with the objectives...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013326392
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Spillover dynamics for systemic risk measurement using spatial financial time series models : conference paper
Blasques, Francisco; Koopman, Siem Jan; Lucas, André; … - 2014
A new model for time-varying spatial dependencies is introduced. It forms an extension to the popular spatial lag model and can be estimated conveniently by maximum likelihood. The spatial dependence parameter is assumed to follow a generalized autoregressive score (GAS) process. The theoretical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010491085
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Consumption-based asset pricing with rare disaster risk : a simulated method of moments approach ; conference paper
Grammig, Joachim; Sönksen, Jantje - 2014
The rare disaster hypothesis suggests that the extraordinarily high postwar U.S. equity premium resulted because investors ex ante demanded compensations for unlikely but calamitous risks that they happened not to incur. While convincing in theory, empirical tests of the rare disaster...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010491152
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ECB monetary policy surprises : identification through cojumps in interest rates ; conference paper
Winkelmann, Lars; Bibinger, Markus; Linzert, Tobias - 2013 - Draft 27.06.2013
We propose a new monetary policy surprise measure based on cojumps in tick-data of a short and long term interest rate. We extend a recently proposed test for cojumps to distinguish policy announcements that shift the short and long end of the yield curve in the same direction (level shift) and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010343631
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Give me strong moments and time : combining GMM and SMM to estimate long-run risk asset pricing models ; conference paper
Grammig, Joachim; Schaub, Eva-Maria - 2014
The long-run consumption risk (LRR) model is a convincing approach towards resolving prominent asset pricing puzzles. Whilst the simulated method of moments (SMM) provides a natural framework to estimate its deep parameters, caveats concern model solubility and weak identification. We propose a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010490550