Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing - 2020 - This version: August 11, 2020
The conventional wisdom that inflation expectations respond to the level of the price of oil (or the price of gasoline … price shocks may indeed drive one-year household inflation expectations. The model shows that there have been several such … episodes since 1990. In particular, the rise in household inflation expectations between 2009 and 2013 is almost entirely …