This study examines whether central banks can combat inflation that is caused by rising energy prices. By using a high …

We test for bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation forecasts using a confidential dataset of ECB macroeconomic … quarterly projections. We investigate whether the properties of the forecasts depend on the level of inflation, by … distinguishing whether the inflation observed by the ECB at the time of forecasting is above or below the target. The forecasts are …

We test for bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation forecasts using a confidential dataset of ECB macroeconomic … quarterly projections. We investigate whether the properties of the forecasts depend on the level of inflation, by … distinguishing whether the inflation observed by the ECB at the time of forecasting is above or below the target. The forecasts are …

We test for state-dependent bias in the European Central Bank's inflation projections. We show that the ECB tends to … underpredict when the observed inflation rate at the time of forecasting is higher than an estimated threshold of 1.8%. The bias is … most pronounced at intermediate forecasting horizons. This suggests that inflation is projected to revert towards the …

The existence of nominal rigidities and inflation differentials between countries offers two of the main rationales for … an inflation buffer in a monetary union where monetary policy is oriented towards an area-wide inflation objective … strong argument for a positive inflation buffer to “grease the wheels” of the euro area economy – also in order to avoid the …

Part of the present inflation is caused by the breakdown of globalization, in particular supply chains, part is caused … the past and in the presence. This paper attributes inflation decisively to the overwhelming money creation by the …

The rise in inflation in 2021-22 sparked a growing literature and debate over the causes of the surge as well as the … near- and medium-term path for inflation. This review offers three key messages. First, the exceptional nature of shocks … resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical events drove the surge in inflation and the initial underestimation by …

Our paper studies the relationship between money growth and consumer price inflation in the euro area using wavelet … analysis. Wavelet analysis allows to account for variations in the money growth-inflation relationship both across the … frequency spectrum and across time. We find evidence of strong comovements between money growth and inflation at low frequencies …

the ECB’s UMP on inflation expectations in the Euro area as inflation expectations play a key role for achieving the … inflation target of below, but close to 2%. Quantifying the impact of UMP is not straightforward, as standard empirical tools … indeed find that UMP leads to a rise in inflation expectations in the short run but that this effect appears to evaporate in …