Die Perspektiven für die deutsche Konjunktur haben sich eingetrübt. Für den Prognosezeitraum ist nur eine schwache konjunkturelle Entwicklung zu erwarten. Geringere Exporte in den Euroraum und eine abgeschwächte Dynamik der Weltkonjunktur und damit einhergehend eine geringe Expansion der...

This paper investigates the differences between directly and indirectly seasonally adjusted aggregates. This difference is derived analytically for linear seasonal adjustment methods. GDP data for five European countries and three classes of seasonal adjustment methods are used to show...

In this paper we present a methodology which can help to improve the assessment of the current economic situation. We propose an approach which combines multivariate single equations to forecast the monthly growth rate of industrial production with a density forecast. This allows to estimate the...

This paper investigates the differences between directly and indirectly seasonally adjusted aggregates. This difference is derived analytically for linear seasonal adjustment methods. GDP data for five European countries and three classes of seasonal adjustment methods are used to show...

In this paper we present a methodology which can help to improve the assessment of the current economic situation. We propose an approach which combines multivariate single equations to forecast the monthly growth rate of industrial production with a density forecast. This allows to estimate the...

The NAIRU is a key component of potential output and as such critically affects output gap estimates. In May 2014, the European Commission changed its specification of the NAIRU for several countries and lowered its NAIRU estimates - in the case of Spain from 26.6% to 20.7% for 2015. To test the...

The NAIRU is a key component of potential output and as such critically affects output gap estimates. In May 2014, the European Commission changed its specification of the NAIRU for several countries and lowered its NAIRU estimates - in the case of Spain from 26.6% to 20.7% for 2015. To test the...

Deutschland steht bei der Modernisierung seines Kapitalstocks vor enormen Herausforderungen. Vor dem Hintergrund einer Vernachlässigung der öffentlichen Investitionen in den letzten beiden Jahrzehnten gilt es nun, die Infrastruktur auf den neuesten Stand zu bringen und den hier aufgelaufenen...