We show that empirical results concerning the behavior of floating exchange rates differ between otherwise identical cointegrated and non-cointegrated VAR models. In particular, virtually all ten-year movements in nominal exchange rates are due to fundamental supply and demand shocks when long...

Empirical evidence on the relationship between technology shocks and e.g. hours worked hinges crucially on the identification of the unobservable technological progress. In this paper, we study different measures of technology in order to find out (i) to what extent they capture the same...

Tentative evidence suggests that the empiricalfailure of uncovered interest parity (UIP) is confined to short-term interest rates. Tests of UIP for long-term interest rates are however hampered by various data problems. By focusing on short investments in long-term bonds, these data problems can...

The co-movements of nominal exchange rates and short-term interest rates as the economy is hit by shocks is a potential source of ex post deviations from uncovered interest rate parity. This paper investigates whether an established model of endogenous monetary policy in an open economy is...

Continuos credibility effects are incorporated into a simple model of optimal monetary policy. The resulting model provides explanations for a number of folk theorems about credibility in monetary policy. A central bank with low initial credibility pursues a more restrictive policy than a...

Out-of-sample forecasting accuracy is a frequently used criterion for evaluating models of exchange rate determination. This paper shows that both UIP and PPP produce better exchange rate forecasts at the ten-year horizon than a random walk without drift. There are two novelties relative to...

The relationship between the nominal exchange rate and import prices is central to the determination of inflation in a small open economy like Sweden. Since the pass-through of exchange rate changes to import prices appears to be affected by the size of the country, it may be expected to be...

Previous studies of the sources of real exchange rate fluctuations have concluded that real demand shocks account for the bulk of the movements in real exchange rates. In this paper, bilateral real exchange rates between the US, the UK, Germany and Japan are investigated using a statistical...

In this paper fluctuations in prices of Swedish exports to five countries are investigated in order to test whether there are systematic differences between prices to different markets and whether relative export prices are systematically affected by macroeconomic conditions in destination...