This paper proposes a novel approach, based on probit framework, towards measuring business cycle synchronization for 9 eurozone economies. We find strong cross-country synchronization in both business cycles and financial cycles. Moreover, financial synchronization dominates business cycle...

his paper attempts to predict the bear conditions on the US stock market. To this aim we elaborate simple predictive regressions, static and dynamic binary choice (BCM) as well as Markov-switching models. The in- and out-of-sample prediction ability is evaluated and we compare the forecasting...

This paper proposes and evaluates several market-based measures for US and eurozone individual bank tail risk and banking system risk. We apply statistical extreme value analysis to the tails of bank equity prices to estimate the likelihood of individual institutions financial distress as well...

We investigate, using vector autoregressions (VAR) and Panel Data Analysis, the role of banks in monetary policy transmission in Pakistan. Empirical evidence suggests that the 'bank lending channel' is at work at the aggregate level. Loans, deposits and government securities all reduce after a...

Purpose: The conventional and new inflation bias theories present two distinct facets to explain the outcome of excess inflation without output gains by a discretionary central banker. First is the temptation to achieve a higher than potential output, and, second is not to let it falter. The...

Purpose: This paper aims to apply the doctrine ofsiyasah shariyyahto a policy proposal in the area of monetary economics, namely, the Grondona system of conditional currency convertibility, which has been proposed as a practical means of resisting the economic instability caused by the...