This paper extends the classical mean-variance preferences to mean-variance-ambiguity preferences by relaxing the assumption that probabilities are known, and instead assuming that probabilities are uncertain. In general equilibrium, the two-fund separation theorem is preserved and the market...

We apply a machine-learning algorithm calibrated from general human vision to predict visual salience of parts of a stock price series. We hypothesize that visual salience of adjacent prices increases decision weights on returns computed from those prices. We analyze the inferred decision impact...

This paper analyzes how limits to the complexity of statistical models used by market participants can shape asset prices. We consider an economy in which agents can only entertain models with at most k factors, where k may be distinct from the true number of factors that drive the economy’s...

Stock prices aggregate the beliefs of different investors. Using this insight, we estimate the fraction of stock market investors holding survey beliefs. We find that 42% of investors hold beliefs matching those of equity analysts and 25% hold beliefs as observed in individual investor return...

Decision-makers typically rely on informative starting points that are somewhat incorrect and then attempt to make appropriate adjustments. Such reliance on informative starting points may be an optimal response of a Bayesian decision-maker who faces finite computational resources (Lieder et al...

The notion of the greenhouse gas (GHG) aversion (GHGA) is introduced into the mean-variance portfolio (MVP) framework. GHGA is assumed to be a weighted sum of the portfolio holdings’ GHG emission intensities. A new portfolio performance measure, the GHGA-tilted Sharpe ratio, is offered for...

This paper explores time series momentum in fixed income securities. Almost all countries in our large sample of 28 advanced and emerging markets have statistically significant positive time series momentum strategy returns. Shorter maturity fixed income securities have greater momentum returns...