The paper estimates a medium-term forecasting model used to generate short-term series of the quarterly GDP. The GDP used was computed using the expenditures decomposition method in accordance with the national accounts, and the data were generated by applying the principal components analysis...

The paper estimates a medium-term forecasting model used to generate short-term series of the quarterly GDP. The GDP used was computed using the production decomposition method in accordance with the national accounts, and the data were generated by applying the principal components analysis and...

The estimation of potential output gap is useful for the identification of a sustainable growth rate without inflationary pressures. In order to derive the potential output decomposition statistical methods and structural relationships estimation methods are used. The former tries to separate a...

The paper attempts to estimate the monthly components of the nominal GDP in order to obtain the monthly nominal GDP for the Romanian economy. All the quarterly time series are available at current prices since 1994 to 2001. The method is a deterministic algorithm that computes unobserved monthly...

The paper points out the impact of modern theory methods of synergetic over the analysis of sociology and economics. These methods are able to capture much more subtle and complicated issues on which the society rules are based. The society is a nonlinear system with a hierarchy of...

This paper presents some government policies scenarios and proposes the appropriate policies for stimulating the economic growth in Romania. The GDP dynamics, budgetary revenues, employment and wages are forecasted using a macroeconomic model of the Romanian economy. The direct effects of the...

In macroeconomic modelling a central role is played by the forecast of state budget revenues and expenditures, since the financial-budgetary resources are the bases of income redistribution in the society and orientate economic growth. In view to achieve a trade-off between sustainable...

This paper evaluates the output gap and the effects of the inflationist shocks to the Romanian economy. We use an extension of the Blanchard-Quah decomposition with three variables: the real output, the unemployment rate and the inflation. Three types of shocks are evaluated: the productivity...