This paper evaluates the quality of survey forecasts, their accuracy and unbiasedness, and their overall consistency. The paper also tries to find out whether the relationships between economic variables are the same in survey data and in the actual data. In other words we analyze whether the...

This paper deals with fiscal policy coordination within the European Monetary Union. In the first place, it investigates the potential problems which are caused by cross-country differences in key fiscal parameters and the asymmetric nature of these parameters. In the second section, the pros...

This paper deals with the effect of gun laws on crime. Several empirical analyses are carried to investigate the relationship between five different crime rates and alternative law variables. The tests are based on cross-section data from US sates. Three different law variables are used in the...

This paper deals with problems of fiscal consolidation and policy coordination within the European Monetary Union. In the first place, it investigates the potential problems which are caused by cross-country differences in key fiscal parameters and the asymmetric nature of these parameters. In...

This paper deals with the debt-growth relationship using several time-series tools. The idea is to find out whether the inverse relationship between these variable can be detected without imposing any functional forms for the estimating relationship and whether the relationship does indeed...

This paper focuses on the determination of inflation expectations. The following two questions are examined: How much do inflation expectations reflect different economic and institutional regime shifts and in which way do inflation expectations adjust to past inflation? The basic idea in the...

This paper focuses on the relationship between higher wages and capital intensity. The relationship itself is by no means a novel finding but we try to provide a meaningful theoretical explanation for the relationship and empirical evidence on its exact nature. Our explanation is the outcome of...

We construct a simple exchange economy overlapping generations model in which there are along with a public social security various private insurance schemes to explore fertility and the effects of various variables on it. In the private system parents can invest in children and benefit from...

This paper compares the GMM and measured expectations in estimating the conventional New Keynesian macro model for the Euro area and the United States. The use of measured expectations strongly reduces the importance of lagged output and inflation terms.

This paper studies uncertainty using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters’ data. We consider both inflation and real GDP growth forecasts at the micro level and explore forecast uncertainty using two alternative measures, i.e. conventional standard deviation of individual point forecasts...