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measures of predictability. However, as random walk theory predicts, relying on apparent patterns in past data does not improve …
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the next draw as a forecast. We find that most of the forecasters report point predictions that are close to one of the …
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Survey questions that elicit point predictions regarding uncertain events face an important challenge as human forecasters use various statistics to summarise their subjective expectations. In this paper, we take up the challenge and study whether alternative formulations of the questions used...
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