The Euro Area Policies’ 2007 Article IV Consultation reports that the economy is poised for a sustained upswing because of cyclical considerations and policies, which have had a forward-looking cast. The area’s external position and the real effective exchange rate of the euro are...

This paper surveys the foreign exchange markets, money and secondary government security markets, and stock exchanges in 107 smaller economy countries. The underdevelopment of these markets impedes risk transfer, monetary policy, corporate financing, and the capacity to absorb capital inflows....

The announcement of the European Union enlargement coincided with a dramatic rise in stock prices in accession countries. This paper investigates the hypothesis that the rise in stock prices was a result of the repricing of systematic risk due to the integration of accession countries into the...

The staff report on Euro Area Policies highlights cyclical growth developments and risks. The area’s real GDP growth has picked up, responding to strong foreign demand and relaxed financial conditions. The final domestic demand growth remains subdued, and the area lags global growth by a...

A self-exciting threshold autoregressive model is used to measure transaction costs that may explain relative price differentials and nonlinearities in the behavior of sectoral real exchange rates across Mexico, Canada and the U.S. Interpreting price threshold bands as transactions costs, we...

We estimate the respective contributions of institutions, geography, and trade in determining cross-country income levels using recently developed instruments for institutions and trade. Our results indicate that the quality of institutions "trumps" everything else. Controlling for institutions,...

The countries of Eastern Europe achieved two remarkable transitions in the short period of the last two decades: from plan to market and, then, in the run-up to and entry into the European Union, they rode a wave of global trade and financial market integration. Focusing on the second...

This paper evaluates the role of trade and financial linkages in the decision to enter a monetary union. We estimate a two-country DSGE model for the U.K. economy and the euro area, and use the model to compute the welfare trade-offs from joining the euro. We evaluate two alternative scenarios....

The East African Community (EAC) has been among the fastest growing regions in sub-Saharan Africa in the past decade or so. Nonetheless, the recent growth path will not be enough to achieve middle-income status and substantial poverty reduction by the end of the decade—the ambition of...

Macroeconomic developments benefited from oil windfalls, but structural problems still impede non-oil growth. Fiscal and external balances improved in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) because of the surge in oil prices and better fiscal management. Oil-related reserve...