Global outlook : a fragile recovery -- Special focus 1 : Debt dynamics in emerging market and developing economies : time to act? -- Special focus 2 : Arm's-length trade : a source of post-crisis trade weakness -- Regional outlooks.

We provide a comprehensive empirical characterization of the linkages between key macroeconomic and financial variables around business and financial cycles for 21 OECD countries over the period 1960–2007. In particular, we analyze the implications of 122 recessions, 112 (28) credit...