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Machine Learning Can Predict Shooting Victimization Well Enough to Help Prevent It
Heller, Sara B.; Jakubowski, Benjamin; Jelveh, Zubin; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
This paper shows that shootings are predictable enough to be preventable. Using arrest and victimization records for almost 644,000 people from the Chicago Police Department, we train a machine learning model to predict the risk of being shot in the next 18 months. We address central concerns...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334389
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Bayesian variable selection for nowcasting economic time series
Scott, Steven L.; Varian, Hal R. - In: Economic analysis of the digital economy, (pp. 119-135). 2015
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010529437
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Bayesian variable selection for nowcasting economic time series
Scott, Steven L.; Varian, Hal R. - 2013
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010205275
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Bayesian Variable Selection for Nowcasting Economic Time Series
Scott, Steven L. - 2013
We consider the problem of short-term time series forecasting (nowcasting) when there are more possible predictors than observations. Our approach combines three Bayesian techniques: Kalman filtering, spike-and-slab regression, and model averaging. We illustrate this approach using search engine...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459094
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Bayesian Variable Selection for Nowcasting Economic Time Series
Scott, Steven L. - 2014
We consider the problem of short-term time series forecasting (nowcasting) when there are more possible predictors than observations. Our approach combines three Bayesian techniques: Kalman filtering, spike-and-slab regression, and model averaging. We illustrate this approach using search engine...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013062413
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Forecasting crime data : an econometric analysis
Fox, James Alan - 1978
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000001796
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Forecasting trends in recorded crime
Deadman, Derek F. (contributor) - 2001 - [Elektronische Ressource]
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001592547
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Hierarchical Markov-switching models for multivariate integer-valued time-series
Catania, Leopoldo; Di Mari, Roberto - In: Journal of econometrics 221 (2021) 1, pp. 118-137
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012618804
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Spatial beta-convergence forecasting models : evidence from municipal homicide rates in Colombia
Santos-Marquez, Felipe - In: Journal of forecasting 41 (2022) 2, pp. 294-302
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012817750
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Do psychopathic traits predict criminal activity?
Mancino, M. Antonella; Attia, Tarek - In: Journal of applied economics 25 (2022) 1, pp. 1260-1293
predictor of crime. We investigate the effect of psychopathy on crime using a unique panel dataset of young offenders, which … find that psychopathy is an important predictor of crime. We show that the effect is two times larger (and closer to usual … comprehensive data on individual heterogeneity to isolate the effect of psychopathy on crime from the effect of confounding factors …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247678