We provide a quantitative theory of deflation and secular stagnation. In our lifecycle framework, an aging population puts persistent downward pressure on the price level, real interest rates, and output. A novel feature of our theory is that it also recognizes the reactions of government...

The COVID-19 pandemic has had systemic macroeconomic impacts due to the different lockdowns and the induced shocks to both supply and demand. A global recession of a magnitude probably worse than the 2008 global financial crisis is already underway. Like every country in the world, the...

The aim of the paper is to discuss one of the major topical and controversial issues in contemporary statistics, which is the separation of monetary and fiscal operations in national accounts. This issue revolves mainly around the operation of public financial institutions mandated to carry out...

The article analyses relationships between fiscalism indicators and the number of newly registered companies (i.e. a new business density index). The study covered the period from 2015 to 2020 (inclusive). Considering the timeframe, the purpose is to determine the impact of COVID-19 on new firm...

In the Covid-19 crisis, most OECD countries have used short-time work (subsidized working time reductions) to preserve employment relationships. This paper studies whether short-time work can save jobs through stabilizing aggregate demand in recessions. First, we show that the consumption risk...

The main aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between government consumption and aggregate output in five Nordic countries in two different scenarios: first, in periods when government consumption increases and, second, in periods when government consumption decreases. Therefore, the...

In this paper, based on a quarterly dataset of G7 countries with the application of a nonlinear ARDL model we test for the presence of a short-run and long-term asymmetry in the relationship between government spending and economic activity. The main aim of this study is to analyze the...

This paper provides a comprehensive early warning system (EWS) that balances the classical signaling approach with the best-realized machine learning (ML) model for predicting fiscal stress episodes. Using accumulated local effects (ALE), we compute a set of thresholds for the most informative...

This paper introduces a dataset that gathers information on whether and how Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) have complied with or deviated from implemented fiscal rules. It provides annual data on fiscal rules for 14 LAC countries from 2000 to 2020, and it considers the design features of...

This paper provides a comprehensive early warning system (EWS) that balances the classical signaling approach with the best-realized machine learning (ML) model for predicting fiscal stress episodes. Using accumulated local effects (ALE), we compute a set of thresholds for the most informative...