The aim of this study is to test the ability of the yield curve on US government bonds to forecast the future evolution in the prices of commodities often used in as raw materials. We consider the monthly prices of nine commodities for more than 30 years. Our findings, confirmed by several...

Carry traders invest in high-yield currencies, which are typically the currencies of commodity exporters. Guided by this stylized fact, we study the impact of commodity prices on carry trade performance. Commodity price shocks contemporaneously explain and predict carry trade returns but only...