During the COVID-19 pandemic, economists have struggled to obtain reliable economic predictions, with standard models becoming outdated and their forecasting performance deteriorating rapidly. This paper presents two novelties that could be adopted by forecasting institutions in unconventional...

This policy brief prepared by ECLAC examines the economic and social impact of the war in Ukraine on the region, and offers countries recommendations on how to address its effects. The document analyzes economic and social variables as well as the different sectors of the regional economy that...

The COVID-19 shock hit firms hard, on average, but how did it hit in the distribution of firms, differently between the high-growth superstars and the firms that were already struggling to survive? This paper implements graphical techniques and quantile regression to analyse the effect of the...