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Speculative eurozone attacks and departure strategies
Homburg, Stefan - 2018
This paper shows that the eurozone payment system does not effectively protect member states from speculative attacks. Suspicion of a departure from the common currency induces a terminal outflow of central bank money in weaker member states. TARGET2 cannot inhibit this drain but only protects...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011931367
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Who needs foreign banks?
Gros, Daniel - 2003
This paper shows that countries with weak banking system and fiscal institutions, should benefit from the presence of foreign banks, which can constitute a commitment and transparency device. Foreign banks can also reduce the probability of self-fulfilling speculative attacks. A strong presence...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011508110
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Exit strategies, capital flight and speculative attacks : Europe's version of the trilemma
Steiner, Andreas; Steinkamp, Sven; Westermann, Frank - 2017
proposing a theory-based index of exchange market pressure within the euro area. We argue that the euro area entails an inherent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011754245
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The effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on stock markets, CDS and economic activity : time-varying evidence from the US and Europe
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Catik, A. Nazif; Helmi, … - 2021
This paper examines the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on stock returns, CDS and economic activity in the US and the five European countries (the UK, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain) which have been most affected. The sample period covers the dates from the first confirmed COVID-19 cases in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012625628
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Sovereign risk dynamics in the EU : the time varying relevance of fiscal and external (im)balances
Afonso, António; Alves, José; Monteiro, Sofia - 2024
Acknowledging the potential detrimental impact that twin-deficits may have on sovereign risk, this study uses a two-step approach to assess the impact of fiscal and external sustainability on sovereign risk dynamics for a panel of 27 European Economies between 2001Q4 and 2022Q3. To do so, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486806
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The euro exchange rate and Germany's trade surplus
Hohberger, Stefan; Ratto, Marco; Vogel, Lukas - 2019
We estimate a three-region (DE-REA-RoW) structural macroeconomic model, and we provide a counterfactual on how nominal exchange rate flexibility would have affected the German trade balance (TB) by simulating the shocks of the estimated model under a counterfactual flexible exchange rate regime....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011983671
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Sustainability and solvency of government finances under the euro : illustrations and policy Options
Oksanen, Heikki - 2020
In this paper, sound public finances under the euro means sustainability in the long term instead of short- and medium …-term fiscal discipline. The challenges to sustainability are identified for the four largest euro area member states, and several … resort for a euro area government under liquidity shortage to prevent it from developing into a general financial crisis …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012238506
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Currency unions, trade, and heterogeneity
Chen, Natalie; Novy, Dennis - 2018
How do trade costs affect international trade? This paper offers a new approach. We rely on a flexible gravity equation that predicts variable trade cost elasticities, both across and within country pairs. We apply this framework to the effect of currency unions on international trade. While we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011867116
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Smoothing asymmetric shocks vs. redistribution in the euro area : a simple proposal for dealing with mistrust in the euro area
Oksanen, Heikki - 2016 - This version 2016-03-22
The euro area will not have a centralised budget and smoothing of country-specific asymmetric shocks via private …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011444463
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Friends without benefits? : new EMU members and the "euro effect" on trade
Mika, Alina; Zymek, Robert - 2017
no evidence of a euro effect on trade flows among early euro adopters up to the year 2002. Second, this finding is robust … to extending the sample period to incorporate data up to 2013, covering five additional euro accessions. Third, while … there is no robust evidence of a euro effect, there is evidence that intra-EU trade flows have expanded faster than the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011597238