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Economic theory predicts that, in a small open economy, the dynamics of the real price of gold should be linked to real …-ofsample the rate of change of the real price of gold. We study the economic value-added of out-of-sample forecasts using a …
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Economic theory predicts that, in a small open economy, the dynamics of the real price of a commodity should be linked to a large-country real interest rate and fluctuations of the real exchange rate. Using data for Australia, we test this prediction using an out-ofsample forecasting experiment....
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We use a quantile-boosting approach to compute out-of-sample forecasts of gold returns. The approach accounts for model …
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