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This paper presents an early warning system as a set of multi-period forecasts of indicators of tail real and financial risks obtained using a large database of monthly U.S. data for the period 1972:1-2014:12 Pseudo-real time forecasts are generated from: (a) sets of autoregressive and...
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the period 1972:1-2014:12 to forecasts our tail risk indicators with each model in pseudo-real time. Our key finding is …
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We propose new systematic tail risk measures constructed using two different approaches. The first extends the … market crash risk. Both tail risk measures are associated with a significantly positive risk premium after controlling for … other measures of downside risk, including downside beta, co-skewness and co-kurtosis. Using these measures, we examine the …
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the present paper we call such combinations ‘coupled risk measures' and develop a statistical inferential theory for them …Considerable literature has been devoted to developing statistical inferential results for risk measures, especially … a number of risk measures that are of the form of ratios, or even more complex combinations, of two L-functionals. In …
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