second stage, we use those indices to provide assessments of the type of aggregate shock hitting each country and assess its …

the inflation rate respond to four different hypothetical exogenous shocks: a monetary policy shock, a government spending … shock, an income tax shock, and an oil price shock. While expert predictions are quantitatively close to benchmarks from … predictions of changes in inflation are at odds with those of experts both for the tax shock and the interest rate shock. We show …

monetary policy news shock based on a VAR model. A monetary news shock is equivalent to new information about the Fed's future … monetary policy becoming available today. One example of a monetary news shock is a Forward Guidance announcement, where the … shocks. We estimate the response of the euro area to an expected future policy tightening of the Fed. The U.S. news shock …