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Habit Formation, Strategic Extremism and Debt Policy
Matsen, Egil; Thogersen, Oystein - 2021
We suggest a probabilistic voting model where voters' preferences for alternative public goods display habit formation. Current policies determine habit levels and in turn the future preferences of the voters. This allows the incumbent to act strategically in order to influence the probability...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316650
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Expressive Voting and Political Ideology in a Laboratory Democracy
Wiese, Rasmus - 2016
We test the theory of expressive voting in relation to political ideology in a laboratory experiment. After deriving …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012996429
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What Moves Political Ideology? An Economic Analysis of Electoral Volatility in France Since 1889
Facchini, François; Melki, Mickael - 2021
The theory of economic voting has extensively explored the influence of national economic conditions on votes for the … of voting swings in the sense of change in votes for non-governing parties. This is owed to the limitations of the theory … the incumbent at the heart of the theory of economic voting explains only a marginal part of total electoral volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315805
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An Experimental Test of the Validity of Survey-Measured Political Ideology
Laméris, Maite D. - 2018
We examine the predictive validity of survey-measured left-right political ideology by testing whether this measure is …, conditional on entitlement concerns, self-reported right-wing ideology significantly predicts preferences for efficiency. Reported … left-wing ideology does not have predictive value in explaining preferences for equality …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012912436
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The Efficacy and Efforts of Interest Groups in Post Elections Policy Formation
Epstein, Gil S.; Mealem, Yosef; Nitzan, Shmuel - 2021
power. Our second result clarifies how the success of an interest group hinges on the dominance of its ideology in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315833
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Social Ideology and Taxes in a Differentiated Candidates Framework
Krasa, Stefan; Polborn, Mattias - 2021
How does ideological polarization on non-economic matters influence the size of government? We analyze this question using a differentiated candidates framework: Two office-motivated candidates differ in their (fixed) ideological position and their production function for public goods, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315995
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Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Bayesian VARs
Berg, Tim Oliver - 2014
Recent articles suggest that a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with shrinkage is a good forecast device even when the number of variables is large. In this paper we evaluate different variants of the BVAR with respect to their forecast accuracy for euro area real GDP growth and HICP...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013055383
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Voter Turnout in European Parliament Elections : A Spatial Analysis
Fiorino, Nadia - 2016
In European Parliament elections turnout rates, traditionally lower than in national parliamentary elections, decrease from one elections to the next, and show strong variations within and between countries. What explains this decline? Why are there such big differences between and within the EU...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012988888
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Estimation of Heterogeneous Agent Models : A Likelihood Approach
Parra-Alvarez, Juan Carlos - 2020
In this paper, we study the statistical properties of heterogeneous agent models with incomplete markets. Using a Bewley-Hugget-Aiyagari model we compute the equilibrium density function of wealth and show how it can be used for likelihood inference. We investigate the identifiability of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012853321
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Order Invariant Tests for Proper Calibration of Multivariate Density Forecasts
Dovern, Jonas - 2018
Established tests for proper calibration of multivariate density forecasts based on Rosenblatt probability integral transforms can be manipulated by changing the order of variables in the forecasting model. We derive order invariant tests. The new tests are applicable to densities of arbitrary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012916359