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Consensus forecasts for the global economy over the medium and long term predict the world's economic gravity will … substantially shift towards Asia and especially towards the Asian Giants, China and India. While such forecasts may pan out, there …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458092
volatility of economic fluctuations. In a sample of 92 countries as well as a sample of OECD countries, we find that countries … with higher volatility have lower growth. The addition of standard control variables strengthens the negative relationship …. We also find that government spending-induced volatility is negatively associated with growth even after controlling for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473940
sub-standard economic performance. They are: long-term trends in world commodity prices, volatility, crowding out of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462796
We reconsider the empirical links between volatility and growth between 1970 and 2007. There is a strong and … their economies. The amount of volatility driven by these external factors is highly correlated, cross-sectionally, with the … overall amount of volatility in GDP growth. There is also a strong correlation between a country's average growth rate and the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463424
evidence for changes in persistence and in volatility of price across three well defined periods. We argue that historically …, the real price of oil has tended to be highly persistent and volatile whenever rapid industrialization in a major world … account for the increased volatility of oil price we observe in these periods …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463721
, modern economists argue that volatility reduces growth in the poor periphery. This paper assess these de …-industrialization and volatility forces between 1782 and 1913 during the Great Divergence. First, it argues that the new economic order had …-reducing terms of trade volatility was the other. Between 1820 and 1870, terms of trade volatility was much greater in the poor …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464805
variability. We show that financial liberalization is mostly associated with lower consumption growth volatility. Our results are … volatility after equity market openings. The results hold for both total and idiosyncratic consumption growth volatility. We also … find that financial liberalizations are associated with declines in the ratio of consumption growth volatility to GDP …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468133
whether dollarized countries have historically exhibited faster growth and lower volatility than countries with a domestic … statistically different in dollarized and in non-dollarized ones. We also find that volatility has been significantly higher in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468878
Does macroeconomic volatility/uncertainty affects accumulation of net foreign assets? In OECD economies over the period … 1970-2012, changes in country specific aggregate volatility are, after controlling for a wide array of factors …, significantly positively associated with net foreign asset position. An increase in volatility (measured as the standard deviation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457794
data on stock market levels and volatility as proxies for the first and second moments of business conditions. We then use …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459187