The steep rise in US interest rates that started in 2022 led many observers to anticipate severe difficulties for emerging market economies (EMEs). Unlike after the Volcker disinflation of the early 1980s or the bond market turmoil of 1994, however, most EMEs weathered the Fed's monetary...

This short factual overview paper describes the complexity created by the tariffs imposed by the US, especially for small and medium enterprises (SMEs). The Policy Brief concludes by highlighting the importance of the EU "Access2Market" tool in addressing these new complexities, helping EU...

This short factual overview paper describes the complexity created by the tariffs imposed by the US, especially for small and medium enterprises (SMEs). The Policy Brief concludes by highlighting the importance of the EU "Access2Market" tool in addressing these new complexities, helping EU...

The U.S. tax reform in 2017 introduced the Global Intangible Low-Taxed Income (GILTI) tax to discourage U.S. multinational companies (MNCs) from shifting intangible income offshore. The reform simultaneously introduced the Foreign Derived Intangible Income (FDII) tax incentive to encourage...

We provide evidence for a causal link between the US economy and the global financial cycle. Using intraday data, we show that US macroeconomic news releases have large and significant effects on global risky asset prices. Stock price indexes of 27 countries, the VIX, and commodity prices all...

Starting in March 2023, depositor runs quickly led to the failures of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank. In the wake of higher interest rates, uninsured depositors of these banks had lost confidence in their business model of taking in deposits and investing the...

Using a GARCH model, we study the effects of Canadian and U.S. central bank communication and macroeconomic news on Canadian bond, stock, and foreign exchange market returns and volatility. First, news in both categories and from both countries has an impact on all financial markets. Canadian...

Did the 2018/19 US-China trade war trigger adjustment of Global Value Chains (GVCs) and nearshoring to Mexico? We address this question with confidential longitudinal firm-level trade data from Mexico that covers the universe of international trade transactions over 2015-2021. By merging the...

We study the role played by Chinese state-owned firms during the US-China trade war. Based on measures constructed from Chinese firm-level customs microdata, we show that the presence of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in Chinese imports led to a large negative impact on US exports in addition to...

We use a dynamic trade and reallocation model with downward nominal wage rigidities to quantitatively assess the economic consequences of recent U.S. tariff increases on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China, as well as the "reciprocal" tariff changes announced on "Liberation Day" and...

US multinationals formed joint ventures in China for market access and lower labor costs. However, these ventures transfer technology to Chinese firms, fueling future competition. While individual firms weigh the risks to their own profits, they disregard the negative impact on other US firms...

On April 2nd 2025, after markets closed, the United States announced steep "Liberation Day" tariffs against most of its trading partners, many of which announced retaliatory tariffs. Market uncertainty spiked, consistent with the magnitudes and scope of the tariffs being unexpected. The prospect...

There is growing recognition that prolonged monetary policy easing of major economies can have extraterritorial spillovers, driving up financial system leverage in other countries. When faced with such a rise of threats to financial stability, what can countries do? Specifically, is there a role...

Since 1980, foreign investors have timed their purchases and sales of U.S. Treasurys to yield particularly low returns. Their annual dollar-weighted returns, measured by IRRs, are around 3% lower than a buy-and-hold strategy over the same horizon. In comparison, the IRRs achieved by domestic...

This paper studies the impact of corruption in a host country on foreign investor's preference for a joint venture versus a wholly-owned subsidiary. There is a basic trade-off in using local partners. On the one hand, corruption makes local bureaucracy less transparent and increases the value of...

The ‘China shock’ operated in part through the housing market, which is one reason why its impact was so large in the United States. We add housing to a multi-region monopolistic competition model, with individuals choosing whether and where to work. Controlling for housing reduces the...

The ‘China shock’ operated in part through the housing market, which is one reason why its impact was so large on U.S. labor market. We add housing to a multi-region monopolistic competition model, with individuals choosing whether and where to work. Controlling for housing reduces the...

In this paper, we examine the international transmission of US monetary policy shocks across euro area and Asian countries by using a FAVAR model. We first examine all possible channels through which a policy shock is transmitted to each country. In general the transmission of the shock hides...

This paper examines the impact of U.S. monetary policy shocks on the cross exchange rates of sterling, yen and mark. The main finding of the paper is a ‘delayed overshooting’ pattern for all currency cross rates examined (sterling/yen, yen/mark and mark/sterling) following an unexpected U.S....

In the two decades straddling China's WTO accession, the China Shock, i.e. the rapid trade integration of China in the early 2000's, has had a profound economic impact across U.S. regions. It is now both an internationally litigated issue and the casus belli for a global trade war. Were its...

The US trade war against China in 2018-2019 can either enhance or diminish the US soft power in China, depending on whether it is recognized as legitimate by Chinese citizens. We study how the viewership of US movies--an important element of the US soft power--is affected by the trade war,...

Using firm-level administrative tax data on the 43% of business liabilities in the United States tied to privately held firms, we document dramatic reductions in leverage since the Great Recession. Leverage for the average private firm fell fifteen percent between 2004 and 2018. In contrast,...

Since 1980, foreign investors have timed their purchases and sales of U.S. Treasurys to yield particularly low returns. Their annual dollar-weighted returns, measured by IRRs, are around 3% lower than a buy-and-hold strategy over the same horizon. In comparison, the IRRs achieved by domestic...