This paper evaluates the transition from X12-ARIMA to X13-ARIMA-SEATS for the seasonal adjustment of Armenia's quarterly national accounts (QNA). We analyze the methodological advancements and their impact on key economic indicators, focusing on the precision and reliability of seasonally...

The three South Caucasus economies - Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia - have performed relatively well since the COVID-19 pandemic, benefiting from certain spillovers of Russia's war against Ukraine. The oil importers Armenia and Georgia achieved double-digit GDP growth in 2022 - 12.6% and 11.0%,...

Armenia, a landlocked country in the South Caucasus with a population of three million, has registered important achievements over the past two decades. Between 2000-2023, Armenia achieved robust economic growth averaging 6.3 percent, above the average for Europe and Central Asia (excluding...

Armenia has made important advances in promoting gender equality in recent years. Yet the country stands to benefit from the narrowing of persistent gaps in human endowment, economic opportunity, and voice and agency. This assessment offers new insights on what remains to be accomplished to...

The three South Caucasus economies - Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia - have performed relatively well since the COVID-19 pandemic, benefiting from certain spillovers of Russia's war against Ukraine. The oil importers Armenia and Georgia achieved double-digit GDP growth in 2022 - 12.6% and 11.0%,...

This report presents results on a review of data available to the State Revenue Committee for estimating the Personal Income Tax and Social Security Contribution gaps. It is concluded that SRC has sufficient quality data available from operational audits to assess the gaps

The lack of a workable and accurate national sampling frame is one of the methodological constraints in conducting representative national surveys. It undermines policy and research efforts in many developing countries, particularly those experiencing significant internal displacement and...

This paper evaluates the transition from X12-ARIMA to X13-ARIMA-SEATS for the seasonal adjustment of Armenia's quarterly national accounts (QNA). We analyze the methodological advancements and their impact on key economic indicators, focusing on the precision and reliability of seasonally...

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has accelerated global dynamics that profoundly impact the post-Soviet South. Relations with Russia are still strong, but the former subalterns are raising their voices. The empowerment is most visible in their foreign relations, but also tends to strengthen...

The Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) provides an assessment of the constraints Armenia should address and the opportunities it can embrace to accelerate progress toward the twin goals of ending extreme poverty and promoting shared prosperity. The first-generation SCD in Armenia, published in...

Over the past decades the Republic of Armenia has implemented significant reforms to reduce the state footprint in their economy and to improve the performance of the State Owned Enterprises (SOEs) where the Government intends to retain ownership. The Government has taken concrete steps focusing...

This report analyzes current public investment practices in Armenia and identifies key reform areas. Building on the 2018 Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA), it provides an overview of the Public Investment Management process and challenges to be tackled, including bottlenecks and...

The EU and Armenia are laying out their vision for a new, ambitious Partnership Agenda. To underpin this partnership, the EU is proposing a €270 million Resilience and Growth Plan for Armenia for 2024-2027.

Often-overlooked developments in Armenia show how Western policy makers are failing to recognize and counteract the growing sophistication of Russia's propaganda machine. There is much the West can do. Intelligence authorities can start sharing more information about Russia's influence...

The dynamics of Austria's economic relations with the EU Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries - Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine - and with Russia have deviated from those of the EU in several important ways. During the decade preceding the war in Ukraine, Austrian trade...

This paper uses two empirical tools to quantify the impact of tariff changes on bilateral trade and welfare. Both tools are rooted in structural gravity literature. The first tool estimates the impact of tariff changes on bilateral trade for 5,020 products in a partial equilibrium framework....

The Armenian economy continues to perform strongly, and the outlook is broadly positive. Growth is decelerating gradually to more sustainable levels, as foreign exchange and migrant inflows peter out. Inflation has rapidly declined due to low imported food and energy inflation, Dram...

The research aimed to identify and evaluate the risks associated with IT projects, particularly focusing on their impacts. Despite numerous efforts, a significant number of software projects still fail to achieve success; however, these risks can be effectively managed. This study outlines...

Economic activity remains strong but moderating as transitory trade, remittances, and capital flows peter out. The outlook is positive, with growth expected to reach 6.0 percent in 2024 and to converge gradually to its long-term rate. Inflation has picked up very slowly and is expected to remain...

This report presents estimates of predictions of the Corporate Income Tax (CIT) gap for Armenia for 2023. The predicted CIT Gap is based on not-yet audited tax returns. The CIT gap is predicted to be 25.5 to 34.1 percent of potential CIT liability in 2023

This report presents estimates of the Corporate Income Tax (CIT) gap for Armenia for the period 2020-2022. The CIT gap is based on a bottom-up approach using operational audits. The average CIT gap in Armenia is estimated at 26.4-35.2 percent of potential CIT liability

Armenia has committed to the adoption of the OECD's Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework. To give effect it will need to enact legislation. An eight-step roadmap for implementation was developed. It sets out each activity, assigns responsibilities and sets timelines

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has accelerated global dynamics that profoundly impact the post-Soviet South. Relations with Russia are still strong, but the former subalterns are raising their voices. The empowerment is most visible in their foreign relations, but also tends to strengthen...

Waste management is a challenging sector to govern. The sector involves the day-to-day delivery of services that are vital to protecting public health and the environment. Regular and reliable waste management services underpin quality of life in communities, and contributes to Armenia's...

This report analyzes the digital technology adoption of Armenian firms based on the findings of the Armenia ICT Survey administered to over 1,900 firms in 2023 by the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia (ARMSTAT), with the technical assistance of the World Bank and support of the...

Armenia has made significant progress in its development journey by improving its ability towithstand shocks and becoming an upper-middle-income country in 2018. Armenia's GDP per capita more than doubled between 2017 and 2023, to USD 8,053 (current prices) despite several shocks including the...

The report is based on the WBG's technical assistance which aimed to 1) provide a baseline of current PHC performance, understand the strengths and weaknesses of the PHC system, and where to target initiatives for improvement; 2) identify and understand variation in PHC performance, especially...

In this paper, we use survey data from the South Caucasus countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia) to document the presence of gender gaps in the labor market and examine its consequences. To do the analysis, we use a numerical general-equilibrium occupational choice model with heterogeneous...

The Armenia public sector accountability survey is instrumental in addressing the disparities between de jure laws and regulations and de facto practices and seeks to fill existing knowledge gaps and inform further definition and implementation of the government's anticorruption initiatives. The...

Fiscal policies affect households and individuals in a variety of ways. Even though these effects are likely to be different for men and women, conventional tools of fiscal incidence analysis are typically unable to capture these gender differences. Using a particular type of incidence analysis...

Waste management is a challenging sector to govern. The sector involves the day-to-day delivery of services that are vital to protecting public health and the environment. Regular and reliable waste management services underpin quality of life in municipalities, and contributes to Armenia's...

Connectivity, especially in the transport sector, has become a ubiquitous issue in the South Caucasus in recent years. Transport connectivity also plays a central role in the European Union's policy towards the region. As part of its Global Gateway Initiative, the EU has made a commitment that...

Since February 2022 - when Russia invaded the Ukraine - the geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus changed dramatically. On the one hand, EU sanctions on Russia made the "Middle Corridor" of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative through the South Caucasus more attractive for China and...

The South Caucasus has long been a theatre of Turkish and Iranian cooperation and rivalry. While these two regional powers have historically balanced their interests, there are signs that rivalry is taking precedence. Turkey's unwavering backing of Azerbaijan during the 2020 Karabakh War...

This report applies the Engendered Commitment to Equity (E-CEQ) methodology to understand the effects of the fiscal system on gender disparities in Armenia. The authors leverage data from the Living Conditions Survey (ILCS), the Labor Force Survey (LFS), and administrative sources, and we follow...

The Country Opinion Survey in Armenia assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in gaining a better understanding of how stakeholders in Armenia perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the...

This study investigates the effectiveness of "nudges" through monthly peer comparison reports on household energy consumption in Yerevan, Armenia. We collected data from 300 households for a total of 8 months. While monthly peer comparison reports show no significant effect on energy...

Connectivity, especially in the transport sector, has become a ubiquitous issue in the South Caucasus in recent years. Transport connectivity also plays a central role in the European Union’s policy towards the region. As part of its Global Gateway Initiative, the EU has made a commitment that...

This Selected Issues paper assesses the Central Bank of Armenia's (CBA) monetary policy framework. It discusses the CBA's track record with inflation targeting; describes the risk-based approach to price stability, offering insights on its potential benefits, while cautioning of likely pitfalls...

This paper presents Armenia's 2023 Article IV Consultation and Second Review under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Modifications of Performance Criteria and Monetary Policy Consultation Clause. The Armenian authorities continue to treat the SBA as precautionary. Armenia's strong growth...

A technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted from July 10 to July 21, 2023, to assist the authorities in Armenia with the development of a Residential Property Price Index (RPPI). Both the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia (ArmStat) and the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) fully...

Supporting the authorities' objective to consolidate revenue, this technical assistance report assesses tax expenditures in Armenia. The report covers major tax expenditures related to the value-added tax, excise taxes, the profit tax, and the personal income tax. With total estimated tax...

This paper analyses Republic of Armenia's First Review under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). Armenia's economic activity was very strong in 2022, with real gross domestic product growing at 12.6 percent, driven by robust consumption and external demand. Growth is projected to be at 5.5 percent...

This technical assistance report on the Republic of Armenia discusses personal tax policy and presents the policy review and introduction of a universal declaration. Costly and regressive tax incentives should be repealed. A Universal Personal Income Tax (PIT) Declaration makes it possible to...

In Armenia, both external and domestic financing face challenges. Armenia's share of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) in private external financing has declined significantly over the past decade. Access to domestic finance in Armenia is also moderate and masks important disparities....