To what extent can private firms' external equity substitute for debt financing in a banking crisis? To answer this question, I use firm-level data and firm-bank linkages to estimate the causal effect of an imported lending cut from a large German bank on firms' capital structure and real...

Some financial disruptions that started in California, U.S., in March 2023, resulting in the closure of several medium-size U.S. banks, shed new light on the role of liquidity in business cycle dynamics. In the normal path of the business cycle, liquidity and output mutually interact. Small...

This paper uses a simulation model to evaluate the effects of river flooding events occurring within Germany on regional' banks. Under a 1.5℃ increase in temperature, the impact is overall rather small, even accounting for the devaluation of loans exposed to floods. However, under a 3℃...

The outbreak of war in Ukraine raises questions about its impact on the economies and financial systems of countries directly and indirectly involved in the war, but also on the economies of non-participating countries. The article aims to identify the channels through which the war in Ukraine...

This paper examines the ramification of government capital injections into financially distressed banks during the 1997 Japanese banking crisis. By leveraging a unique dataset merging firm-level financial statements and bank balance sheets, the study aims to examine whether the capital...

This study examines the determinants of financial intermediation costs of banks in ten Emerging Economies (EEs) in the period 2000-2018 using panel data of 1335 banks. Empirically, this study applies the single-stage dealership model and its extensions by introducing new bank and country-level...

This paper revisits the Swedish banking crisis (1919-26) that materialized as post war deflation replaced wartime inflation (1914-18). Inspired by Fisher's 'debt deflation theory', we employ survival analysis to 'predict' which banks would fail, given certain ex-ante bank characteristics. Our...

We quantify the sovereign-bank doom loop by using the 1999 Marmara earthquake as an exogenous shock leading to an increase in Turkey's default risk. Our theoretical model illustrates that for banks with higher exposure to government securities, a higher sovereign default risk implies lower net...

To what extent can private firms' external equity substitute for debt financing in a banking crisis? To answer this question, I use firm-level data and firm-bank linkages to estimate the causal effect of an imported lending cut from a large German bank on firms' capital structure and real...

Banks are reluctant to tap central bank backup liquidity facilities and use the borrowed funds for loans to the real economy. We show that excessively parsimonious borrowing and lending can arise in a stigma-free model where the banking sector has an incentive to overissue deposits. Banks don't...

This paper studies the effects of introducing a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) on economic output, bank intermediation and financial stability in a closed economy using an Agentbased Stock Flow Consistent (AB-SFC) Model. Thereby a digital bank run is simulated across various economic...

This paper develops an early warning system for predicting distress for large European banks. Using a novel definition of distress derived from banks' headroom above regulatory requirements, we investigate the performance of three machine learning techniques against the traditional logistic...

Regulators increasingly rely on supervisory technologies (SupTech) to enhance bank supervision, but their potential role in disciplining bank behavior remains unclear. We address this knowledge gap using unique data from the SupTech application of the Central Bank of Brazil. We show that, after...

This article critically reviews the 2023 banking crisis with the benefit of two years of hindsight. We highlight seven facts that depart from the standard account of the crisis that has developed. We describe the crisis as a reaction to bank business models that focused on providing banking...

Several countries now require banks or money market funds to impose state-contingent costs on shortterm creditors to absorb financial stress. We study these requirements as part of the broader prudential toolkit in a model with five key ingredients: banks may face an aggregate stress state with...

We study the effects of bank transparency on both banks' asset and liquidity risks, and ultimately, on banking sector stability and welfare. We show how enhanced bank transparency increases banks' vulnerability to excessive deposit outflows, but this threat of a liquidity crisis incentivizes...

This paper analyzes the private production of safe assets and its implications for financial stability. Financial intermediaries (FIs) originate loans, exert hidden effort to improve loan quality, and create safe assets by issuing debt backed by the safe payments from (i) their own loans and...

The paper examines the nexus between capital, competition and stability in the Kenya banking sector. This is achieved by applying a panel data analysis model on annual bank level data for the period 2001 to 2022. The paper estimated H-Statistics and Bank Stability Index to measure evolution of...

One of the focuses of recent literature has been the macroeconomic effects of macroprudential policy instruments. The innovation of this paper is that it studies the effects of transparent macro-prudential policies on price stability. The results presented herein provide the first empirical...

This paper uses a stylized simulation model to assess the potential impact of transition risk on banks' balance sheets and establishes a basis for calibrating relevant macro-prudential instruments. We show that even in the short run, a fire-sale mechanism could amplify an initially contained...

In the summer of 1931, the Austro-German banking crisis spread to Romania and Bulgaria. In the Romanian case, the management of the crisis confronted three types of protagonists - politicians, bankers and central bankers - and positions about the relevant attitude to adopt, in particular to...