This paper develops an early warning system for predicting distress for large European banks. Using a novel definition of distress derived from banks' headroom above regulatory requirements, we investigate the performance of three machine learning techniques against the traditional logistic...

This paper provides a first empirical analysis of the impact of the European Central Bank's (ECB's) climate-risk-related supervisory efforts on (i) climate risk exposure and related risk management of banks; and (ii) on the induced shifts in banks' portfolio choices with regard to additional...

In the last decades, during the unfolding of momentous events, we saw the growing awareness of the need for a transition to a sustainable economy. The radical economic and social change will require the mobilization of colossal resources, and hence the alignment of the financial system to this...

We ask if bank supervisors’ efforts to combat climate change affect banks' lending and their borrowers’ transition to the carbon-neutral economy. Combining information from the French supervisory agency’s climate pilot exercise with borrowers' emission data, we first show that banks that...

This paper evaluates the impact of the March 2020 European Central Bank recommendation that banks do not pay dividends or buy back shares on their market values. It documents a causal negative impact on bank share prices of around 7% during the two weeks following its announcement. The...

Banking supervisors worldwide recognise the pressing need to harness frontier technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), particularly machine learning (ML), to enhance their efficiency and analytical capabilities. The European Central Bank (ECB) has similarly acknowledged the...

This paper captures advances in prudential regulation and supervision for challenger banks and fintech in the UK. It presents a critical analysis of the prudential supervisory approaches towards fintech. The focus is placed on fast-growing firms (FGFs), building on the review performed by the...

This research aims to find the most accurate model for predicting bankruptcy in the Indonesian banking industry. The data used are secondary data in the form of financial reports from 2018 to 2022. The methodology includes hypothesis testing using normality, homogeneity, and one-way ANOVA tests....

This paper studies the impact of banks' dividend restrictions on the behavior of their institutional investors. Using an identification strategy that relies on the within investor variation and a difference in difference setup, I find that funds permanently decrease their ownership shares at...

We show that around one third of executive directors on the boards of national supervisory authorities (NSA) in European banking have an employment history in the financial industry. The appointment of executives without a finance background associates with negative valuation effects....

This paper develops an early warning system for predicting distress for large European banks. Using a novel definition of distress derived from banks' headroom above regulatory requirements, we investigate the performance of three machine learning techniques against the traditional logistic...

The technical note and manual "Sibling Rivalry in the Financial Safety Net," authored by Atilla Arda and Jan Nolte, examines the governance structures essential critical for effective bank resolution and deposit insurance functions. Considering the vulnerabilities exposed during the 2008-09...

We study whether and how EU banks comply with tighter macroprudential policy (MPP). Observing contractual details for more than one million securitized loans, we document an elusive risk-shifting response by EU banks in reaction to tighter loan-to-value (LTV) restrictions between 2009 and 2022....

Regulators increasingly rely on supervisory technologies (SupTech) to enhance bank supervision, but their potential role in disciplining bank behavior remains unclear. We address this knowledge gap using unique data from the SupTech application of the Central Bank of Brazil. We show that, after...

Regardless of the individual perspectives on Artificial Intelligence (AI), it can transform the personal and professional lives at an unprecedented pace. It will also impact one of the most regulated and supervised industries in the world - the financial sector. Risk-based supervision (RBS) has...

This paper examines how microprudential policy affects income inequality, and whether and how the effect of macroprudential policy on income inequality depends on the stance of microprudential policy. The dataset covers 70 countries over the period 1996-2013. Applying the system GMM estimation...

This paper explores the impact of bank transparency on market efficiency by comparing banks that disclose supervisory capital requirements to those that remain opaque. Due to the informational content of supervisory capital requirements for the market this opacity might hinder market efficiency....

Relying on confidential supervisory data related to the 2016 EU-wide stress test, this paper presents novel empirical evidence that supervisory scrutiny associated to stress testing has a disciplining effect on bank risk. We find that banks that participated in the 2016 EU-wide stress test...

The global financial crisis of 2008, triggered by the collapse of Lehman Brothers, highlighted a banking system that was widely exposed to systemic risk. The minimization of the systemic risk via a close and detailed monitoring of the entire banking network became a priority. This is a complex...

The financial stability of the commercial banking sector remains one of the critical responsibilities of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Weak banks cause instability in the financial system, triggering depositor runs. While several studies covered the prompt corrective action framework (PCA)...

Risk analysis and scenario testing are two of the core activities carried out by economists at central banks. With the increasing adoption of machine learning to enhance decision-support systems, and the amount of collected data spiking, institutions provide countless use-cases for the...

This paper provides a first empirical analysis of the impact of the European Central Bank's (ECB's) climate-risk-related supervisory efforts on (i) climate risk exposure and related risk management of banks; and (ii) on the induced shifts in banks' portfolio choices with regard to additional...

Supervisory data are typically not conceived for statistical purposes or considered "official statistics", but they are disclosed to the public, either directly by the supervised institutions or indirectly by the competent authorities. This disclosure is required under Pillar 3 of the Basel...

We ask if bank supervisors' efforts to combat climate change affect banks' lending and their borrowers' transition to the carbon-neutral economy. Combining information from the French supervisory agency's climate pilot exercise with borrowers' emission data, we first show that banks that...

We examine the issue of the appropriate selection of macroprudential instruments according to the vulnerabilities identified and the policymakers' objectives using a version of the 3D DSGE model following Mendicino et al. (2020) and Hinterschweiger et al. (2021) calibrated for the euro area. We...

The results of this paper provide empirical evidence that regulatory capital ratios drive bank Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and that markets react more to changes in capital requirements if implemented via direct adjustments to Pillar 1 risk weights than imposed as a percentage of Risk-Weighted...

This study discusses and analyses on a targeted basis and in a systematic way the evolution and key aspects of the case-law of the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) in relation to the two key pillars of the Banking Union in force, namely, the Single Supervisory and the Single...

This study discusses and analyses on a targeted basis and in a systematic way the evolution and key aspects of the case-law of the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) in relation to the two key pillars of the Banking Union in force, namely, the Single Supervisory and the Single...

This paper discusses EU case law developed over the past decade relating to decisions taken by the European Central Bank within the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) and within the Single Resolution Mechanism (SRM). The cases centre around embracing and solidifying the BU framework, inter alia,...

The results of this paper provide empirical evidence that regulatory capital ratios drive bank Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and that markets react more to changes in capital requirements if implemented via direct adjustments to Pillar 1 risk weights than imposed as a percentage of Risk-Weighted...

This paper discusses EU case law developed over the past decade relating to decisions taken by the European Central Bank within the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) and within the Single Resolution Mechanism (SRM). The cases centre around embracing and solidifying the BU framework, inter alia,...