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  • Search: subject_exact:"Bayesian inference"
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Year of publication
Subject
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Bayesian inference 11,631 Bayes-Statistik 11,077 Theorie 4,991 Theory 4,983 Estimation 2,165 Schätzung 2,162 Prognoseverfahren 1,796 Forecasting model 1,790 VAR-Modell 1,532 VAR model 1,530 Estimation theory 1,451 Schätztheorie 1,451 Markov-Kette 1,075 Markov chain 1,074 Time series analysis 1,029 Zeitreihenanalyse 1,029 Monte Carlo simulation 909 Monte-Carlo-Simulation 908 Dynamisches Gleichgewicht 792 Dynamic equilibrium 788 Schock 709 Shock 708 Monetary policy 696 USA 692 United States 688 Geldpolitik 687 Volatility 637 Volatilität 637 Stochastic process 622 Stochastischer Prozess 621 Bayesian estimation 597 Game theory 571 Spieltheorie 571 Regression analysis 569 Regressionsanalyse 569 DSGE model 562 DSGE-Modell 551 Business cycle 512 Konjunktur 511 Risk 485
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Online availability
All
Free 5,533 Undetermined 3,094 CC license 268
Type of publication
All
Book / Working Paper 6,015 Article 5,692 Other 8 Journal 2
Type of publication (narrower categories)
All
Article in journal 5,078 Aufsatz in Zeitschrift 5,078 Working Paper 3,428 Graue Literatur 3,347 Non-commercial literature 3,347 Arbeitspapier 3,309 Aufsatz im Buch 283 Book section 283 Hochschulschrift 167 Thesis 120 Collection of articles written by one author 45 Sammlung 45 Collection of articles of several authors 39 Sammelwerk 39 Conference paper 36 Konferenzbeitrag 36 Article 30 Aufsatzsammlung 16 Lehrbuch 14 Amtsdruckschrift 13 Government document 13 Konferenzschrift 13 Forschungsbericht 12 Textbook 12 Systematic review 11 Übersichtsarbeit 11 Case study 7 Fallstudie 7 research-article 5 Bibliografie 4 Bibliografie enthalten 4 Bibliography included 4 Festschrift 4 Reprint 4 Conference Paper 3 Handbook 3 Handbuch 3 Amtliche Publikation 2 Conference proceedings 2 Rezension 2
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Language
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English 11,257 Undetermined 364 German 40 French 21 Spanish 13 Portuguese 8 Polish 7 Czech 2 Italian 2 Russian 2 Danish 1 Dutch 1 Romanian 1 Turkish 1
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Author
All
Dijk, Herman K. van 181 Koop, Gary 168 Ravazzolo, Francesco 125 Schorfheide, Frank 123 Casarin, Roberto 112 Tsionas, Efthymios G. 94 Hoogerheide, Lennart 79 Chan, Joshua 76 Marcellino, Massimiliano 76 Korobilis, Dimitris 74 Strachan, Rodney W. 64 Villani, Mattias 64 Bauwens, Luc 60 Huber, Florian 60 Carriero, Andrea 56 Clark, Todd E. 55 Billio, Monica 54 Grassi, Stefano 52 Havránek, Tomáš 50 Kohn, Robert 50 Del Negro, Marco 46 Gupta, Rangan 44 Österholm, Pär 44 Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús 43 Allenby, Greg M. 42 Paap, Richard 42 Geweke, John 40 Robert, Christian P. 40 Kitagawa, Toru 39 Steel, Mark F. J. 39 Martin, Gael M. 38 Basturk, Nalan 37 Canova, Fabio 37 Kilian, Lutz 36 Lang, Stefan 36 Amisano, Gianni 35 Kaufmann, Sylvia 35 Doppelhofer, Gernot 34 Hoogerheide, Lennart F. 34 Poon, Aubrey 34
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Institution
All
National Bureau of Economic Research 67 Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE), École des Sciences Économiques de Louvain 18 European Central Bank 13 Sveriges Riksbank 13 University of British Columbia / Finance Division 12 Departamento de Estadistica, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid 10 Econometrisch Instituut <Rotterdam> 10 University of Strathclyde / Department of Economics 8 Université Paris-Dauphine (Paris IX) 7 Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute 6 Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen, Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam 6 Institut de Recherche Économique et Sociale (IRES), École des Sciences Économiques de Louvain 6 Dipartimento di Economia, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia 5 EconWPA 5 Tinbergen Instituut 5 University of Warwick / Department of Economics 5 Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München 5 C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 4 Centre Interuniversitaire sur le Risque, les Politiques Économiques et l'Emploi (CIRPÉE) 4 European University Institute / Department of Law 4 Faculteit Economie en Bedrijfskunde, Universiteit Gent 4 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 4 HAL 4 Johns Hopkins University / Department of Economics 4 Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis (RCEA) 4 School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus 4 University of Cambridge / Department of Applied Economics 4 University of Chicago / Graduate School of Business 4 University of New England / Department of Econometrics 4 Department of Economics, Oxford University 3 Econometric Society 3 Federal Reserve Bank of New York 3 Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University 3 Institut d'Économie Appliquée, HEC Montréal (École des Hautes Études Commerciales) 3 Iowa State University / Department of Economics 3 Sonderforschungsbereich Quantifikation und Simulation Ökonomischer Prozesse 3 Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası 3 University of Canterbury / Dept. of Economics and Finance 3 University of Sheffield / Department of Economics 3 Université Paris-Dauphine 3
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Published in...
All
Journal of econometrics 189 Discussion paper / Tinbergen Institute 143 Journal of business & economic statistics : JBES ; a publication of the American Statistical Association 133 Working paper 124 International journal of forecasting 113 Economic modelling 94 Journal of the American Statistical Association : JASA 94 Discussion papers / CEPR 91 European journal of operational research : EJOR 87 Journal of applied econometrics 85 Economics letters 77 Working paper series / European Central Bank 75 Econometric reviews 74 CAMA working paper series 72 CESifo working papers 72 Journal of economic dynamics & control 70 Working papers 66 Journal of economic theory 65 Discussion paper 64 Working paper / Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, Monash University 64 Journal of forecasting 63 NBER working paper series 60 Empirical economics : a journal of the Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria 58 Games and economic behavior 58 Marketing science 57 Management science : journal of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences 56 IMF working papers 54 Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics : SNDE ; quarterly publ. electronically on the internet 54 Discussion paper / Centre for Economic Policy Research 52 Applied economics 51 International journal of production research 50 ECB Working Paper 48 NBER Working Paper 48 Journal of macroeconomics 47 Econometrics : open access journal 45 Insurance / Mathematics & economics 44 Working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 44 Computational economics 42 Energy economics 41 Working paper series 41
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Source
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ECONIS (ZBW) 11,111 RePEc 429 EconStor 152 BASE 16 Other ZBW resources 7 USB Cologne (EcoSocSci) 2
Showing 1 - 50 of 11,717
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Estimating discrete choice demand models with sparse market-product shocks
Lu, Zhentong; Shimizu, Kenichi - 2025
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Modeling high-frequency financial data using R and Stan : a bayesian autoregressive conditional duration approach
Tabash, Mosab I.; Navas, T. Muhammed; Thayyib, P. V.; … - In: Journal of open innovation : technology, market, and … 10 (2024) 2, pp. 1-16
In econometrics, Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD) models use high-frequency economic or financial duration data, which mostly exhibit irregular time intervals. The ACD model is widely used to examine the duration of transaction volume and duration of price variations in stock markets....
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Improving the robustness of Markov-Switching dynamic factor models with time-varying volatility
Aumond, Romain; Royer, Julien - 2024
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Bayesian mode inference for discrete distributions in economics and finance
Cross, Jamie; Hoogerheide, Lennart; Labonne, Paul; … - 2023
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Fiscal policy regimes in resource-rich economies
Bjørnland, Hilde Christiane; Casarin, Roberto; … - 2023
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Subjective risk valuation and behavioral change : evidence from COVID-19 in the U.K. and Japan
Sato, Masayuki; Kinoshita, Shin; Ida, Takanori - 2023
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Information-theoretic model of induced technical change : theory and empirics
Yang, Jangho - In: Metroeconomica : international review of economics 74 (2023) 1, pp. 2-39
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Bayesian mode inference for discrete distributions in economics and finance
Cross, Jamie; Hoogerheide, Lennart; Labonne, Paul; … - 2023
Detecting heterogeneity within a population is crucial in many economic and financial applications. Econometrically, this requires a credible determination of multimodality in a given data distribution. We propose a straightforward yet effective technique for mode inference in discrete data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014313693
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Parametric models of income distributions integrating misreporting and non-response mechanisms
Silva, Mathias - 2023 - This version: May 4, 2023
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Germany's macroeconomic drivers during the pandemic and inflation surge
Hohberger, Stefan - In: International economics and economic policy 22 (2025) 1, pp. 1-49
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Estimating macroeconomic models of financial crises : an endogenous regime-switching approach
Benigno, Gianluca; Foerster, Andrew; Otrok, Christopher M. - In: Quantitative economics : QE ; journal of the … 16 (2025) 1, pp. 1-47
We develop a new model of cycles and crises in emerging markets, featuring an occasionally binding borrowing constraint and stochastic volatility, and estimate it with quarterly data for Mexico since 1981. We propose an endogenous regime‐switching formulation of the occasionally binding...
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How much do we learn? : measuring symmetric and asymmetric deviations from Bayesian updating through choices
Aydogan, Ilke; Baillon, Aurélien; Kemel, Emmanuel; Li, Chen - In: Quantitative economics : QE ; journal of the … 16 (2025) 1, pp. 329-365
Belief‐updating biases hinder the correction of inaccurate beliefs and lead to suboptimal decisions. We complement Rabin and Schrag's (1999) portable extension of the Bayesian model by including conservatism in addition to confirmatory bias. Additionally, we show how to identify these two...
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Soft landing and inflation scares
Bullard, James B.; Grimaud, Alex; Salle, Isabelle; … - 2025
We discuss the timing and strength of the Fed's reaction to the recent inflation surge within an estimated macroeconomic model where long-run inflation expectations are heterogeneous and can lose their anchoring to the target. The resulting inflation scare worsens the real cost of disinflation....
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A spatial one-sided error model to identify where unarrested criminals live
Puerta-Cuartas, Alejandro; Ramírez Hassan, Andrés - In: Economic modelling 142 (2025), pp. 1-12
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Bayesian analysis for functional coefficient conditional autoregressive range model with applications
Wang, Bin; Qian, Yixin; Yu, Enping - In: Economic modelling 144 (2025), pp. 1-12
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Measuring natural rate of interest in Uzbekistan
Inkhomiddinov, Islomjon - 2025
The natural rate of interest, often interpreted as the equilibrium real interest rate, serves as a critical benchmark for evaluating the stance of monetary policy. This paper investigates the natural rate of interest in Uzbekistan using three econometric approaches: the HLW-type model1 , a...
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Weitzman meets Taylor : EU allowance price drivers and carbon cap rules
Benmir, Ghassane; Roman, Josselin; Taschini, Luca - 2025
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Immigration (from Ukraine) and labour market in Poland : evidence from Bayesian VAR models
Postek, Łukasz; Walerych, Małgorzata - 2025
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The new Keynesian climate model
Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume; Smets, Frank; Vermandel, Gauthier - 2025
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Persuading while learning
Arieli, Itai; Babichenko, Yakov; Shaiderman, Dima; Shi, … - 2025
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Portfolio optimization beyond utility maximization : the case of driftless markets
Večeř, Jan; Richard, Mark; Taylor, Stephen - In: The European journal of finance 31 (2025) 3, pp. 318-347
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Output gap measurement after Covid for Colombia: lessons from a permanent-transitory approach
Granados, Camilo; Parra-Amado, Daniel - 2025
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Tail sensitivity of US bank net interest margins : a Bayesian penalized quantile regression approach
Fritsch, Nicholas - 2025
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A Bayesian stochastic discount factor for the cross-section of individual equity options
Käfer, Niclas; Mörke, Mathis; Weigert, Florian; … - 2025 - This version: April 23, 2024
We utilize Bayesian model averaging to estimate a stochastic discount factor (SDF) for single-stock options. A Bayesian model averaging SDF outperforms reduced-form benchmark models in-sample and out-of-sample in pricing option return anomalies and portfolios. We document that the SDF is dense...
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Retain, reactivate or acquire : can nonprofits reliably use community profiles as an alternative to past donation data?
Sinha, Shameek; Malik, Sumit; Mahajan, Vijay; Hofstede, … - In: Journal of business research : JBR 186 (2025), pp. 1-18
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Regularized Bayesian best response learning in finite games
Mukherjee, Sayan; Roy, Souvik - In: Games and economic behavior 149 (2025), pp. 1-31
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Development of the near-term forecast of inflation for Uzbekistan : application of FAVAR and BVAR models
Boymirzaev, Temurbek - 2025
This study investigates the application of Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression (FAVAR) and Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) models for inflation forecasting. FAVAR models deal with high-dimensional data by extracting latent factors from extensive macroeconomic indicators, while BVAR...
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Intelligent policy framework : natural resource conservation, knowledge and big data analytics
Xiao, Nina; Qu, Xianhe - In: Journal of innovation & knowledge : JIK 10 (2025) 2, pp. 1-10
In today's context of escalating environmental pressure, traditional methods of natural resource conservation face numerous challenges. The use of big data analytics to support the formulation of environmental policies has become a crucial approach for enhancing the efficiency and scientific...
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An in-sample evaluation of exchange rate models : in search of scapegoats
Cheung, Yin-Wong; Wang, Wenhao; Westermann, Frank - 2025
A modified dynamic model averaging framework, which allows for inferences regarding the shifting relevance and significance of explanatory variables, is employed to evaluate the in-sample performance of exchange rate models. This analysis is based on a set of 16,384 model specifications derived...
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Robust parameter design for constrained randomization lifetime improvement experiments
Lv, Shanshan; Zhao, Yichen; Li, Sen; Wang, Guodong; … - In: Journal of management science and engineering 10 (2025) 1, pp. 126-141
Several process parameters affect product reliability. Traditional reliability improvement methods primarily focus on maximizing product lifetime, often overlooking the variation in product lifetime. Manufacturers, however, aim to produce products with minimal variations in their performance....
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Are accelerators akin to breweries or wineries? : a Bayesian variance decomposition of accelerator and cohort effects
Avnimelech, Gil; Dushnitsky, Gary; Ellsaesser, Florian; … - In: Strategic management journal 46 (2025) 2, pp. 534-579
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An in-sample evaluation of exchange rate models : in search of scapegoats
Cheung, Yin-Wong; Wang, Wenhao; Westermann, Frank - 2025
A modified dynamic model averaging framework, which allows for inferences regarding the shifting relevance and significance of explanatory variables, is employed to evaluate the in-sample performance of exchange rate models. This analysis is based on a set of 16,384 model specifications derived...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015396820
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A meta-meta-analysis of behavior change interventions : two tales of behavior change
Kaiser, Tim; Kloidt, Juliane; Mata, Jutta; Hertwig, Ralph - 2025
Behavioral science interventions like incentives, nudges, and boosts are increasingly used in public policy, but their effectiveness remains debated. We conducted a meta-meta-analysis on behavior change interventions across health, finance, and sustainability outcomes. Our analysis covers 838...
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The network of injustice : a novel approach to inequality of opportunity
Colcerasa, Francesco; Giammei, Lorenzo; Subioli, Francesca - 2025
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Distributional dynamics
Bayer, Christian; Calderon, Luis; Kuhn, Moritz - 2025
We develop a new method for deriving high-frequency synthetic distributions of consumption, income, and wealth. Modern theories of macroeconomic dynamics identify the joint distribution of consumption, income, and wealth as a key determinant of aggregate dynamics. Our novel method allows us to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015185197
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Differentiable, filter free Bayesian estimation of DSGE models using mixture density networks
Naubert, Christopher - 2025 - Last updated: January 16, 2025
I develop a methodology for Bayesian estimation of globally solved, non-linear macroeconomic models. A novel feature of my method is the use of a mixture density network to approximate the distribution of initial states. I use the methodology to estimate a medium-scale, two-agent New Keynesian...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015187509
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A comparison of Bayesian and frequentist variable selection methods for estimating average treatment effects in logistic regression
Martinez, Alex H.; Christensen, Brian; Sutton, Elizabeth F. - 2025
In many manuscripts, researchers use multivariable logistic regression to adjust for potential confounding variables when estimating a direct relationship of a treatment or exposure on a binary outcome. After choosing how variables are entered into that model, researchers can calculate an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015202692
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World GDP, anthropogenic emissions, and global temperatures, sea level, and ice cover
Benati, Luca - 2025
I use Bayesian VARs with stochastic volatility to forecast global temperatures and sea level and ice cover in the Northerin emisphere until 2010, by exploiting (i) their long-run equilibrium relationship with climate change drivers (CCDs) and (ii) the relationship between world GDP and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015329682
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Predicting wholesale edible oil prices through Gaussian process regressions tuned with Bayesian optimization and cross-validation
Jin, Bingzi; Xu, Xiaojie - In: Asian journal of economics and banking : AJEB 9 (2025) 1, pp. 64-82
Purpose - Developing price forecasts for various agricultural commodities has long been a significant undertaking for a variety of agricultural market players. The weekly wholesale price of edible oil in the Chinese market over a ten-year period, from January 1, 2010 to January 3, 2020, is the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015339298
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On survival estimation of Lomax distribution under adaptive progressive type-II censoring
Sharma, Hemani; Kumar, Parmil - In: Statistics in transition : an international journal of … 26 (2025) 1, pp. 51-67
The main objective of the research described in the article is to study the maximum likelihood (ML) estimation and the Bayesian approach for parameter estimation of the Lomax distribution. Additionally, the study aims to determine the approximate intervals for the parameters and the survival...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015338333
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Unlocking university efficiency : a Bayesian stochastic frontier analysis
García-Tórtola, Zaira; Conesa, David; Crespo, Joan; … - In: International transactions in operational research : a … 32 (2025) 5, pp. 2620-2644
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015375743
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A large Bayesian vector autoregression of the yield curve and macroeconomic variables with no-arbitrage restriction
Kang, Kyu Ho - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015401970
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On the time-varying causal relationships that drive bitcoin returns
Stengos, Thanasēs; Panagiōtidēs, Theodōros; … - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015401931
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Inflation forecasting in turbulent times
Ertl, Martin; Fortin, Ines; Hlouskova, Jaroslava; Koch, … - In: Empirica : journal of european economics 52 (2025) 1, pp. 5-37
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A comment on "A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Transdiagnostic Cognitive Behavioural Therapies for Emotional Disorders"
Bartoš, František; Godmann, Henrik R. - 2025
Schaeuffele et al. (2024) examined the effect of Transdiagnostic Cognitive Behavioural Psychotherapy (TD-CBT) on emotional disorders through a meta-analysis of 53 studies involving 6,705 participants. Their main findings indicated that TD-CBT has larger treatment effects on depression, g = 0.74,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015332922
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Forecasts of residential real estate price indices for ten major Chinese cities through Gaussian process regressions
Jin, Bingzi; Xu, Xiaojie - In: International journal of empirical economics 4 (2025) 1, pp. 1-24
Due to the rapid growth of the Chinese housing market over the past ten years, forecasting home prices has become a crucial issue for investors and authorities alike. In this research, utilising Bayesian optimisations and cross validation, we investigate Gaussian process regressions across...
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Moment matching for Bayesian inference in the baseline New-Keynesian model
Jang, Tae-Seok; Sacht, Stephen - 2025
Contrary to claims in studies on financial economics, a sparse database often obscures the identification of parameters in macroeconomic models. These identification problems originate from the poorly defined mapping between a structural model and reduced-form parameters. Hence, researchers rely...
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Bayesian nonparametric inference in bank business models with transient and persistent cost inefficiency
Korobilis, Dimitris; Mamatzakis, Emmanuel C.; Pappas, … - 2025
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Auctions with signaling bidders : optimal design and information disclosure
Bos, Olivier; Pollrich, Martin - 2025
We study optimal auctions in a symmetric private values setting, where bidders have signaling concerns: they care about winning the object and a receivers inference about their type. Signaling concerns arise in various economic situations such as takeover bidding, charity auctions, procurement...
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Updating climate beliefs based on latest IPCC report points to increased willingness to act
Freeman, Mark; Groom, Benjamin; Nesje, Frikk; Wagner, Gernot - 2025
We assess how changes in the scientific consensus around equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), as captured by the IPCC’s Fifth (AR5) and Sixth (AR6) Assessment Reports, impact policymakers’ willingness to take climate action. Taking the IPCC’s reports at face value, the ECS estimates in...
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