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  • Search: subject_exact:"Bayesian inference"
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Year of publication
Subject
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Bayesian inference 11,824 Bayes-Statistik 11,268 Theorie 5,067 Theory 5,059 Estimation 2,208 Schätzung 2,205 Prognoseverfahren 1,841 Forecasting model 1,834 VAR-Modell 1,561 VAR model 1,559 Estimation theory 1,480 Schätztheorie 1,480 Markov-Kette 1,091 Markov chain 1,090 Time series analysis 1,059 Zeitreihenanalyse 1,059 Monte Carlo simulation 924 Monte-Carlo-Simulation 923 Dynamisches Gleichgewicht 801 Dynamic equilibrium 797 Schock 727 Shock 726 Monetary policy 703 USA 697 Geldpolitik 694 United States 693 Volatility 649 Volatilität 649 Stochastic process 635 Stochastischer Prozess 634 Bayesian estimation 610 Game theory 579 Regression analysis 579 Regressionsanalyse 579 Spieltheorie 579 DSGE model 570 DSGE-Modell 558 Business cycle 519 Konjunktur 518 Risk 502
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Online availability
All
Free 5,613 Undetermined 3,171 CC license 290
Type of publication
All
Book / Working Paper 6,062 Article 5,838 Other 8 Journal 2
Type of publication (narrower categories)
All
Article in journal 5,204 Aufsatz in Zeitschrift 5,204 Working Paper 3,468 Graue Literatur 3,383 Non-commercial literature 3,383 Arbeitspapier 3,349 Aufsatz im Buch 285 Book section 285 Hochschulschrift 167 Thesis 120 Collection of articles written by one author 45 Sammlung 45 Collection of articles of several authors 39 Sammelwerk 39 Conference paper 36 Konferenzbeitrag 36 Article 32 Aufsatzsammlung 16 Lehrbuch 14 Amtsdruckschrift 13 Government document 13 Konferenzschrift 13 Forschungsbericht 12 Textbook 12 Systematic review 11 Übersichtsarbeit 11 Case study 7 Fallstudie 7 research-article 5 Bibliografie 4 Bibliografie enthalten 4 Bibliography included 4 Festschrift 4 Reprint 4 Conference Paper 3 Handbook 3 Handbuch 3 Amtliche Publikation 2 Conference proceedings 2 Rezension 2
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Language
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English 11,450 Undetermined 364 German 40 French 21 Spanish 13 Portuguese 8 Polish 7 Czech 2 Italian 2 Russian 2 Danish 1 Dutch 1 Romanian 1 Turkish 1
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Author
All
Dijk, Herman K. van 182 Koop, Gary 168 Ravazzolo, Francesco 125 Schorfheide, Frank 125 Casarin, Roberto 116 Tsionas, Efthymios G. 95 Hoogerheide, Lennart 79 Marcellino, Massimiliano 79 Chan, Joshua 77 Korobilis, Dimitris 75 Strachan, Rodney W. 67 Villani, Mattias 64 Huber, Florian 62 Bauwens, Luc 60 Carriero, Andrea 56 Billio, Monica 55 Clark, Todd E. 55 Grassi, Stefano 53 Havránek, Tomáš 50 Kohn, Robert 50 Del Negro, Marco 46 Gupta, Rangan 46 Österholm, Pär 45 Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús 43 Allenby, Greg M. 42 Paap, Richard 42 Robert, Christian P. 41 Geweke, John 40 Steel, Mark F. J. 40 Kitagawa, Toru 39 Martin, Gael M. 39 Basturk, Nalan 37 Canova, Fabio 37 Kilian, Lutz 36 Lang, Stefan 36 Amisano, Gianni 35 Doppelhofer, Gernot 35 Kaufmann, Sylvia 35 Tobias, Justin L. 35 Hoogerheide, Lennart F. 34
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Institution
All
National Bureau of Economic Research 69 Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE), École des Sciences Économiques de Louvain 18 European Central Bank 14 Sveriges Riksbank 13 University of British Columbia / Finance Division 12 Departamento de Estadistica, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid 10 Econometrisch Instituut <Rotterdam> 10 University of Strathclyde / Department of Economics 8 Université Paris-Dauphine (Paris IX) 7 Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute 6 Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen, Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam 6 Institut de Recherche Économique et Sociale (IRES), École des Sciences Économiques de Louvain 6 Dipartimento di Economia, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia 5 EconWPA 5 Tinbergen Instituut 5 University of Warwick / Department of Economics 5 Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München 5 C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 4 Centre Interuniversitaire sur le Risque, les Politiques Économiques et l'Emploi (CIRPÉE) 4 European University Institute / Department of Law 4 Faculteit Economie en Bedrijfskunde, Universiteit Gent 4 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 4 HAL 4 Johns Hopkins University / Department of Economics 4 Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis (RCEA) 4 School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus 4 University of Cambridge / Department of Applied Economics 4 University of Chicago / Graduate School of Business 4 University of New England / Department of Econometrics 4 Department of Economics, Oxford University 3 Econometric Society 3 Federal Reserve Bank of New York 3 Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University 3 Institut d'Économie Appliquée, HEC Montréal (École des Hautes Études Commerciales) 3 Iowa State University / Department of Economics 3 Sonderforschungsbereich Quantifikation und Simulation Ökonomischer Prozesse 3 Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası 3 University of Canterbury / Dept. of Economics and Finance 3 University of Sheffield / Department of Economics 3 Université Paris-Dauphine 3
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Published in...
All
Journal of econometrics 189 Discussion paper / Tinbergen Institute 143 Journal of business & economic statistics : JBES ; a publication of the American Statistical Association 133 Working paper 125 International journal of forecasting 122 Economic modelling 97 Discussion papers / CEPR 95 Journal of the American Statistical Association : JASA 94 European journal of operational research : EJOR 91 Journal of applied econometrics 91 Economics letters 82 Working paper series / European Central Bank 76 Econometric reviews 74 CESifo working papers 73 CAMA working paper series 72 Journal of economic dynamics & control 70 Working papers 70 Journal of economic theory 66 Journal of forecasting 66 Discussion paper 64 Working paper / Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, Monash University 64 NBER working paper series 62 Games and economic behavior 60 Management science : journal of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences 59 Empirical economics : a journal of the Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria 58 Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics : SNDE ; quarterly publ. electronically on the internet 58 Marketing science 57 IMF working papers 54 Applied economics 53 Discussion paper / Centre for Economic Policy Research 52 International journal of production research 50 ECB Working Paper 48 NBER Working Paper 48 Econometrics : open access journal 47 Journal of macroeconomics 47 Computational economics 44 Insurance 44 Working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 44 Working paper series 43 Energy economics 41
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Source
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ECONIS (ZBW) 11,302 RePEc 429 EconStor 154 BASE 16 Other ZBW resources 7 USB Cologne (EcoSocSci) 2
Showing 1 - 50 of 11,910
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Estimating discrete choice demand models with sparse market-product shocks
Lu, Zhentong; Shimizu, Kenichi - 2025
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Improving the robustness of Markov-Switching dynamic factor models with time-varying volatility
Aumond, Romain; Royer, Julien - 2024
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Modeling high-frequency financial data using R and Stan : a bayesian autoregressive conditional duration approach
Tabash, Mosab I.; Navas, T. Muhammed; Thayyib, P. V.; … - In: Journal of open innovation : technology, market, and … 10 (2024) 2, pp. 1-16
In econometrics, Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD) models use high-frequency economic or financial duration data, which mostly exhibit irregular time intervals. The ACD model is widely used to examine the duration of transaction volume and duration of price variations in stock markets....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014581582
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Information-theoretic model of induced technical change : theory and empirics
Yang, Jangho - In: Metroeconomica : international review of economics 74 (2023) 1, pp. 2-39
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Bayesian mode inference for discrete distributions in economics and finance
Cross, Jamie; Hoogerheide, Lennart; Labonne, Paul; … - 2023
Detecting heterogeneity within a population is crucial in many economic and financial applications. Econometrically, this requires a credible determination of multimodality in a given data distribution. We propose a straightforward yet effective technique for mode inference in discrete data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014313693
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Parametric models of income distributions integrating misreporting and non-response mechanisms
Silva, Mathias - 2023 - This version: May 4, 2023
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014284150
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Subjective risk valuation and behavioral change : evidence from COVID-19 in the U.K. and Japan
Sato, Masayuki; Kinoshita, Shin; Ida, Takanori - 2023
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014323515
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Bayesian mode inference for discrete distributions in economics and finance
Cross, Jamie; Hoogerheide, Lennart; Labonne, Paul; … - 2023
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014431644
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Fiscal policy regimes in resource-rich economies
Bjørnland, Hilde Christiane; Casarin, Roberto; … - 2023
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Predicting wholesale edible oil prices through Gaussian process regressions tuned with Bayesian optimization and cross-validation
Jin, Bingzi; Xu, Xiaojie - In: Asian journal of economics and banking : AJEB 9 (2025) 1, pp. 64-82
Purpose - Developing price forecasts for various agricultural commodities has long been a significant undertaking for a variety of agricultural market players. The weekly wholesale price of edible oil in the Chinese market over a ten-year period, from January 1, 2010 to January 3, 2020, is the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015339298
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Robust parameter design for constrained randomization lifetime improvement experiments
Lv, Shanshan; Zhao, Yichen; Li, Sen; Wang, Guodong; … - In: Journal of management science and engineering 10 (2025) 1, pp. 126-141
Several process parameters affect product reliability. Traditional reliability improvement methods primarily focus on maximizing product lifetime, often overlooking the variation in product lifetime. Manufacturers, however, aim to produce products with minimal variations in their performance....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015361722
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Monetary and fiscal policies in Brazil and the behavioral approach
Freitas, Raphael José Pereira - In: Economia : revista da ANPEC 26 (2025) 1, pp. 108-126
Purpose This study aims to elucidate the dynamics of monetary and fiscal policy interactions in Brazil, focusing on the impacts of positive shocks in government consumption and interest rates. By comparing rational and behavioral agent responses, it clarifies how these frameworks influence gross...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015372631
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Moment matching for Bayesian inference in the baseline New-Keynesian model
Jang, Tae-Seok; Sacht, Stephen - 2025
Contrary to claims in studies on financial economics, a sparse database often obscures the identification of parameters in macroeconomic models. These identification problems originate from the poorly defined mapping between a structural model and reduced-form parameters. Hence, researchers rely...
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Forecasts of residential real estate price indices for ten major Chinese cities through Gaussian process regressions
Jin, Bingzi; Xu, Xiaojie - In: International journal of empirical economics 4 (2025) 1, pp. 1-24
Due to the rapid growth of the Chinese housing market over the past ten years, forecasting home prices has become a crucial issue for investors and authorities alike. In this research, utilising Bayesian optimisations and cross validation, we investigate Gaussian process regressions across...
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Model averaging for time-varying vector autoregressions
Sun, Yuying; Chen, Feng; Gao, Jiti - 2025
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Fiscal and monetary policy interactions : impacts and economic implications
Bozagiu, Andreea-Mădălina; Mihai, Dănuț-Georgian; … - In: Financial studies 29 (2025) 1, pp. 52-65
This paper analyses the impact of various macroeconomic shocks - including aggregate demand, supply, monetary policy, real exchange rate, and budget deficit deviation shocks - on Romania's economy using a VAR model with Bayesian inference. The study captures the period following the adoption of...
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Unlocking university efficiency : a Bayesian stochastic frontier analysis
García-Tórtola, Zaira; Conesa, David; Crespo, Joan; … - In: International transactions in operational research : a … 32 (2025) 5, pp. 2620-2644
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015375743
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An investigation of Frequentist and Ensemble Bayesian-aided techniques for prioritizing anomaly detection methods in time-series data
Divakaran, Vignesh; Rana, Vipasha - 2025
Accurately detecting anomalous points in time-series data is critical, as false positives can mislead business stakeholders, waste valuable resources, and diminish the overall impact of the detection system. While various statistical and machine learning techniques are employed to flag potential...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015420328
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Endogenous business cycles with small and large firms
Haque, Qazi; Pavlov, Oscar; Weder, Mark - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015420432
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A Gibbs sampler for efficient Bayesian inference in sign-identified SVARs
Arias, Jonas; Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco; Shin, Minchul - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015420793
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Shortages and machine-learning forecasting of oil returns volatility : 1900-2024
Polat, Onur; Somani, Dhanashree; Gupta, Rangan; … - In: Finance research letters 79 (2025), pp. 1-7
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015420864
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Nature scenario plausibility : a dynamic Bayesian network approach
Colesanti Senni, Chiara; Goel, Skand - In: Ecological economics 236 (2025), pp. 1-8
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015421461
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Heterogeneity of institutions and model uncertainty in the income inequality nexus
Deniz, Pinar; Stengos, Thanasēs - In: European journal of political economy 87 (2025), pp. 1-28
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015422746
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SMARTboost learning for tabular data
Giordani, Paolo - In: Journal of financial econometrics 23 (2025) 3, pp. 1-30
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015425424
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Auctions with signaling bidders : optimal design and information disclosure
Bros, Olivier; Pollrich, Martin - In: Games and economic behavior 151 (2025), pp. 95-107
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015426482
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A large Bayesian VAR of the U.S. economy
Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; Giannone, Domenico; … - In: International journal of central banking : IJCB 21 (2025) 2, pp. 351-409
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015427019
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Monte Carlo simulations for resolving verifiability paradoxes in forecast risk management and corporate treasury applications
Pavlik, Martin; Michalski, Grzegorz - In: International Journal of Financial Studies : open … 13 (2025) 2, pp. 1-38
Forecast risk management is central to the financial management process. This study aims to apply Monte Carlo simulation to solve three classic probabilistic paradoxes and discuss their implementation in corporate financial management. The article presents Monte Carlo simulation as an advanced...
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Copula modeling of COVID-19 excess mortality
Asplund, Jonas; Shemyakin, Arkady - In: Risks : open access journal 13 (2025) 7, pp. 1-18
COVID-19's effects on mortality are hard to quantify. Issues with attribution can cause problems with resulting conclusions. Analyzing excess mortality addresses this concern and allows for the analysis of broader effects of the pandemic. We propose separate ARIMA models to analyze excess...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015437055
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Inference of impulse responses via Bayesian graphical structural VAR models
Ahelegbey, Daniel Felix - In: Econometrics : open access journal 13 (2025) 2, pp. 1-20
Impulse response functions (IRFs) are crucial for analyzing the dynamic interactions of macroeconomic variables in vector autoregressive (VAR) models. However, traditional IRF estimation methods often have limitations with assumptions on variable ordering and restrictive identification...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015437129
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A flexible distribution family for testing MCMC implementations
Papp, Tamás K. - 2025
We propose a flexible, extensible family of distributions for testing Markov Chain Monte Carlo implementations. Distributions are created by nesting simple transformations, which allow various shapes, including multiple modes and fat tails. The resulting distributions can be sampled with high...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015437134
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How heterogeneous are the inflation expectations?
Moučka, Jakub; Němec, Daniel - In: Danube : law and economics review 16 (2025) 2, pp. 88-125
This paper investigates the heterogeneity of inflation expectations among households, firms, and professionals across 14 economies. Using Bayesian model averaging and panel data regressions, we identify key determinants of inflation expectations, assess their stability over time, and evaluate...
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A dynamic factor model of skill formation and mental health : counterfactual analysis of interventions for social mobility
Diaz-Campo, Cecilia S.; Mancino, M. Antonella; Navarro, … - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015437382
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A Bayesian network approach to production decisions by incorporating complex causal factors
Attar, S. Fateme; Mohammadi, Mohammad; Pasandideh, … - In: Journal of management science and engineering 10 (2025) 2, pp. 262-278
Handling uncertainty is a key aspect of production management. This paper employs a Bayesian network (BN) approach to improve uncertainty analysis in production decision-making by identifying common causal factors that may affect one or more components of an integrated supply chain problem. A...
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Scenario synthesis and macroeconomic risk
Adrian, Tobias; Giannone, Domenico; Luciani, Matteo; … - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015437921
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The causal impact of school-meal programmes on children in developed economies : a meta-analysis
Ayllón, Sara; Lado, Samuel - 2025
This paper is the first to meta-analyse the literature on the causal effects of school-meal programmes on children's behavioural, health and educational outcomes in developed countries, while addressing potential publication bias and heterogeneity between studies. We create a sample of 2,821...
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Multivariate stochastic volatility with co-heteroscedasticity
Chan, Joshua; Doucet, Arnaud; León-González, Roberto; … - In: Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics : SNDE ; … 29 (2025) 3, pp. 265-300
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015438126
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Green fiscal multipliers with different sovereign debt trajectories in EU countries
Afonso, António; Alves, José; Ferrara, Alessio; … - 2025
This paper estimates the fiscal multipliers of green public spending using a linear Bayesian Panel VAR and a Smooth Transition VAR framework, with quarterly data for the period 1995Q1-2022Q4 for EU member states. We group EU member states based on similar- ities in debt trajectories and green...
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Strategic market games with interim price information
Zimper, Alexander - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015438821
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Time-varying impacts of financial stress on energy-related uncertainty
Khodjaniyazov, Nurbek; Mirkhoshimova, Mokhirakhon; … - In: International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy : IJEEP 15 (2025) 3, pp. 689-698
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015439413
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Local and global trend Bayesian exponential smoothing models
Smyl, Slawek; Bergmeir, Christoph; Dokumentov, Alexander; … - In: International journal of forecasting 41 (2025) 1, pp. 111-127
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015440243
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Coupling LSTM neural networks and state-space models through analytically tractable inference
Vuong, Van-Dai; Nguyen, Luong-Ha; Goulet, James-A. - In: International journal of forecasting 41 (2025) 1, pp. 128-140
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015440244
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The time-varying Multivariate Autoregressive Index model
Cubadda, Gianluca; Grassi, Stefano; Guardabascio, Barbara - In: International journal of forecasting 41 (2025) 1, pp. 175-190
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015440289
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ABC-based forecasting in misspecified state space models
Weerasinghe, Chaya; Loaiza-Maya, Rubén; Martin, Gael M.; … - In: International journal of forecasting 41 (2025) 1, pp. 270-289
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015440307
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Sparse time-varying parameter VECMs with an application to modeling electricity prices
Hauzenberger, Niko; Pfarrhofer, Michael; Rossini, Luca - In: International journal of forecasting 41 (2025) 1, pp. 361-376
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015440327
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Forecasting the future : applying Bayesian model averaging for exchange rates drivers in Ghana
Agyapong, Joseph; Ayamga, Eric Atanga; Anyars, Suleman … - In: Applied economics 57 (2025) 27, pp. 3876-3900
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015443017
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The inflation uncertainty-inflation relationship: time variation across Latin America and the G7
Alvarado, Mauricio; Rodriguez, Gabriel - 2025 - Primera edición
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015443288
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A note on the dynamic effects of supply and demand shocks in the crude oil market
Nguyen, Hoang; Österholm, Pär - In: Applied economics letters 32 (2025) 11, pp. 1627-1633
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Endogenous business cycles with small and large firms
Haque, Qazi; Pavlov, Oscar; Weder, Mark - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015405884
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Fast posterior sampling in tightly identifed SVARs using 'soft' sign restrictions
Read, Matthew; Zhu, Dan - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015406664
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CardSim : a Bayesian simulator for payment card fraud detection research
Allen, Jeffrey S. - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015406666
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