This paper investigates how external shocks propagate through fiscal transmission mechanisms in a commodity-dependent economy within a dynamic macroeconomic framework. The study contributes to the literature on macroeconomic fluctuations by examining the interaction between external revenue...

Building on a frequency-domain identification within a nonlinear Structural Dynamic Factor Model, we study the nonlinear transmission of demand and supply shocks, the two shocks accounting for the bulk of fluctuations in U.S. macroeconomic variables. Supply shocks propagate symmetrically and are...

Interest rate spreads vary widely across time and countries and are a central driver of business cycles in emerging market economies (EMEs). Since 2008, advanced market economies (AMEs) have exhibited persistently higher and more volatile spreads, alongside increased macroeconomic volatility and...

Pro-cyclical fiscal policy is considered harmful. Nonetheless, pro-cyclicality is widespread and the cyclicality of fiscal policy isstrongly heterogenous in advanced economies. This paper investigates how differences in the cyclicality of fiscal policy can be understood through the lens of...

This paper identifies electricity supply shocks by exploiting the fact that variations in wind speed at turbine locations are exogenous with respect to macroeconomic outcomes and drive electricity prices in European wholesale markets inframarginally. Instrumenting electricity price changes with...

We propose a nonlinear framework that exploits both macro and micro data to study the dynamic transmission of aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks to household income. We develop identification arguments and estimation methods that combine macro time series and time series of panels. Using U.S....

We suggest a core set of indicators for evaluating the position of the labor market relative to maximum employment. The unemployment rate remains the key indicator of the cyclical position of the labor market, as it is time-tested, is highly correlated with other indicators, and has practical...

We propose a nonlinear framework to study the dynamic transmission of aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks to household income that exploits both macro and micro data. Our approach allows us to examine empirically the following questions: (a) How do business-cycle fluctuations modulate the...

Imports feature at all stages of production as well as in final consumption, and this is key to how tariff shocks play out. If imposed on imports in upstream sectors, import tariffs lower domestic output in downstream sectors; if imposed downstream, they raise upstream production. The aggregate...

In April, sceptical economic assessments continued to prevail. By sector, the deterioration was particularly evident in services and retail trade. In manufacturing, economic assessments improved but remained at a low level. Compared with the previous quarter, uncertainty rose particularly in...

Economic sentiment improved slightly in October in all sectors except retail trade, although scepticism remained prevalent in manufacturing. Business uncertainty rose quarter-on-quarter and remained high in manufacturing and construction, while ca-pacity utilisation improved in these sectors....

This study investigates the leverage effect and realized volatility (RV) of stocks in the presence of asymmetric jumps across economic expansions and contractions. We extend the heterogeneous autoregressive-realized volatility (HAR-RV) model by incorporating a two-period Markov regime-switching...

I examine how households adjust the quality of their purchases in response to adverse economic shocks. Using household scanner data from Germany, I document heterogeneous responses across income levels. Higher-income households tend to reduce the quality of the goods they purchase, whereas...

Firms respond heterogeneously to aggregate fluctuations, yet standard linear models impose restrictive assumptions on firm sensitivities. Applying the Generalized Random Forest to U.S. firm-level data, we document strong nonlinearities in how firm characteristics shape responses to macroeconomic...

We present an Uncertainty Perception Indicator (UPI) for Germany based on the dynamic topic modelling technique RollingLDA. In contrast to conventional LDA, where all data is processed in one go, the recursive structure of RollingLDA ensures that data is made available for modeling as soon as it...

This paper makes a twofold contribution. First, it develops the dynamic factor model of by allowing for fractional integration instead of imposing the classical dichotomy between I(0) stationary and I(1) non-stationary series. This more general setup provides valuable information on the degree...

Women born later experience greater earnings growth volatility at given ages than the next older cohort. This alone would imply a welfare loss due to increased earnings risk. However, using German registry data for the years 2001-2016, we document a moderation in higher-order earnings risk: Both...

We extend a dynamic investment model that captures the conjoint effect of ambiguity and the business cycle on the investment threshold and endogenous investment quantity choice. This paper focuses on investment strategies under the combined effects of ambiguity and business cycles. We reveal...

The labour supply has historically been subject to influence from the economic cycle. On the other hand, there is a paucity of research in the Latin American region examining the impact of social factors on labour participation in diverse contexts. This study examines the spatial dependence of...

This paper examines the impact of economic fluctuations on social norms, specifically exploring the link between changes in unemployment and shifts in attitudes toward gender roles in the labor market. The results are not immediately obvious, as the literature suggests several potential...

Canada's universities each receive an annual operating grant from their provincial government to partially finance operating expenses. This paper estimates the sensitivity of provincial operating grants to the business cycle by disentangling the effects of procyclical income on government...

Recently, several studies have argued about the interactions of the real economy and financial system, as well as the importance of financial cycles in business cycle fluctuations. To date, there exists near consensus among central bankers, economists, and other scholars that the financial cycle...

This study extends the concept of granularity from firms to cities, examining how large cities influence national economic dynamics beyond their relative size. By applying Zipf's law, which describes the power law distribution of city sizes, we investigate the interplay between granularity and...

How do the business cycle effects of loan supply shocks depend on the state of prudential regulation in the euro area? To address this question, we first identify regulatory cycles from a cumulative prudential policy index that tracks the evolution of the regulatory stance in the euro area....