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Year of publication
Subject
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Business cycle turning point 320 Konjunktureller Wendepunkt 320 Business cycle 202 Konjunktur 202 Economic indicator 76 Wirtschaftsindikator 76 Frühindikator 73 Leading indicator 73 Forecasting model 67 Prognoseverfahren 67 Time series analysis 67 Zeitreihenanalyse 67 Theorie 62 Theory 62 Markov chain 58 Markov-Kette 58 USA 49 United States 49 Estimation 40 Schätzung 40 Deutschland 23 EU countries 23 EU-Staaten 23 Germany 23 Wirtschaftswachstum 22 Economic growth 20 Business cycle theory 19 Konjunkturtheorie 19 Business cycle analysis 18 Konjunkturforschung 18 Euro area 17 Eurozone 17 Welt 17 World 17 Business cycle synchronization 16 Konjunkturzusammenhang 16 Bayes-Statistik 14 Bayesian inference 14 Großbritannien 14 Japan 14
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Online availability
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Free 119 Undetermined 49 CC license 2
Type of publication
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Book / Working Paper 179 Article 142
Type of publication (narrower categories)
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Article in journal 119 Aufsatz in Zeitschrift 119 Graue Literatur 102 Non-commercial literature 102 Arbeitspapier 93 Working Paper 93 Aufsatz im Buch 20 Book section 20 Hochschulschrift 5 Thesis 4 Amtsdruckschrift 3 Aufsatzsammlung 3 Government document 3 Case study 2 Collection of articles of several authors 2 Collection of articles written by one author 2 Fallstudie 2 Forschungsbericht 2 Sammelwerk 2 Sammlung 2 Advisory report 1 Conference proceedings 1 Gutachten 1 Konferenzschrift 1
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Language
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English 296 German 11 French 8 Croatian 1 Polish 1 Romanian 1 Spanish 1 Undetermined 1 Chinese 1
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Author
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Camacho, Maximo 15 Hamilton, James D. 15 Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel 13 Ferrara, Laurent 11 Leamer, Edward E. 7 Billio, Monica 6 Chauvet, Marcelle 6 Owyang, Michael T. 6 Anas, Jacques 5 Banerji, Anirvan 5 Berge, Travis J. 5 Kholodilin, Konstantin 5 Mazzi, Gian Luigi 5 McKay, Alisdair 5 Poncela, Pilar 5 Reis, Ricardo 5 Stock, James H. 5 Watson, Mark W. 5 Amstad, Marlene 4 Andersson, Eva 4 Bandholz, Harm 4 Bengoechea, Pilar 4 Canova, Fabio 4 Ciccarelli, Matteo 4 Doz, Catherine 4 Funke, Michael 4 Harding, Don 4 Jordà, Òscar 4 Layton, Allan P. 4 Pandey, Radhika 4 Patnaik, Ila 4 Ravazzolo, Francesco 4 Rhode, Paul W. 4 Shah, Ajay 4 Aastveit, Knut Are 3 Abberger, Klaus 3 Carmignani, Fabrizio 3 Chitre, Vikas S. 3 Darné, Olivier 3 Gadea, María Dolores 3
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Institution
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National Bureau of Economic Research 8 European Commission / Statistical Office of the European Union 2 Université catholique de Louvain / Institut de recherches économiques et sociales <1941-1960> 2 Bank of Spain (Spain) 1 Colloquium on Modern Tools for Business Cycle Analysis <4, 2003, Luxembourg> 1 European Commission / Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs 1 Europäische Kommission / Statistisches Amt 1 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 1 Narodna Banka na Republika Makedonija 1 School of Business and Economics, Loughborough University 1 State University of New York at Albany / Department of Economics 1 Weltbank 1 World Bank 1
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Published in...
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Journal of forecasting 11 Working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 10 Journal of business cycle measurement and analysis : a joint publication of OECD and CIRET 8 NBER Working Paper 8 NBER working paper series 8 International journal of forecasting 7 Discussion paper / Centre for Economic Policy Research 6 Working paper 6 Economic modelling 5 Indian economic review : biannual journal of the Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi 5 Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik 5 Applied economics 4 Applied economics letters 4 Documentos de trabajo / Banco de España 4 Empirical economics : a journal of the Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria 4 Basic research program working papers / Series: Economics / National Research University, Higher School of Economics 3 Business cycles and economic growth : an analysis using leading indicators 3 Higher School of Economics Research Paper 3 IRES discussion papers 3 Journal of econometrics 3 Monographs of official statistics : papers and proceedings of the Third Eurostat Colloquium on Modern Tools for Business Cycle Analysis ; statistical methods and business cycle analysis of the Euro zone 3 Bank of Finland research discussion papers 2 CEPR - EABCN 2 CESifo working papers 2 CESifo working papers : the international platform of Ludwig-Maximilians University's Center for Economic Studies and the Ifo Institute 2 Classification and clustering in business cycle analysis 2 Discussion papers / La Trobe University, School of Economics 2 Dynamic factor models 2 ECB Working Paper 2 ECFIN country focus : economic analysis from the European Commission's Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs 2 Economie & prévision : EP 2 Emerging markets finance & trade : a journal of the Society for the Study of Emerging Markets 2 Forschungsergebnisse der WU Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien 2 Journal of applied econometrics 2 Journal of macroeconomics 2 KOF working papers 2 L' Actualité économique : revue trimest. 2 National Institute economic review 2 Nonlinear time series analysis of business cycles 2 Occasional papers / National Bank of Romania 2
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Source
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ECONIS (ZBW) 320 RePEc 1
Showing 1 - 50 of 321
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Business cycle turning points and local labour markets
Taylor, Karl; Bhadury, Soumya; Binner, Jane M.; Mandal, … - 2024
In this paper we consider the predictors of the business cycle in Great Britain, where the claimant count and unemployment rate are found to be key indicators associated with turning points. Next, we consider at a micro-economic level, using disaggregated local authority level data, a number of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014582294
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Dating business cycles in the United Kingdom, 1700-2010
Broadberry, Stephen N.; Chadha, Jagjit; Lennard, Jason; … - In: The economic history review 76 (2023) 4, pp. 1141-1162
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Detecting turning points and phases of expansions and recessions of the restaurant industry : subject to Korean restaurant industry business and its growth cycles
Choi, Jeong-gil; Zhang, Yi-Wei; Xu, Shi-Nyu - In: Global business and finance review 28 (2023) 7, pp. 46-58
Purpose: The purpose of this study is to detect turning points and phases of expansions and recessions of the Korean restaurant industry. Design/methodology/approach: This study investigated long-term economic trends in the restaurant industry cycle and growth cycle by utilizing yearly data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014490533
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Dating Business Cycle Turning Points
Chauvet, Marcelle; Hamilton, James D. - 2021
This paper discusses formal quantitative algorithms that can be used to identify business cycle turning points. An intuitive, graphical derivation of these algorithms is presented along with a description of how they can be implemented making very minimal distributional assumptions. We also...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013239375
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Momentum Turning Points
Garg, Ashish; Goulding, Christian L.; Harvey, Campbell R.; … - 2021
Turning points are the Achilles' heel of time-series momentum portfolios. Slow signals fail to react quickly to changes in trend while fast signals are often false alarms. We examine theoretically and empirically how momentum portfolios of various intermediate speeds, formed by blending slow and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013250406
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Dating business cycles in France : a reference chronology
Aviat, Antonin; Bec, Frédérique; Diebolt, Claude; … - 2021
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012623732
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Dating business cycles in France: a reference chronology
Aviat, Antonin; Bec, Frédérique; Diebolt, Claude; … - 2021
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012606758
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An automatic algorithm to date the reference cycle of the Spanish economy
Camacho, Maximo; Gadea, María Dolores; Gómez-Loscos, Ana - 2021
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012795603
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Nowcasting Business Cycle Turning Points with Stock Networks and Machine Learning
Azqueta-Gavaldon, Andres; Hirschbühl, Dominik; … - 2021
We propose a granular framework that makes use of advanced statistical methods to approximate developments in economy-wide expected corporate earnings. In particular, we evaluate the dynamic network structure of stock returns in the United States as a proxy for the transmission of shocks through...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013314911
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Nonparametric Regression and the Detection of Turning Points in the Ifo Business Climate
Abberger, Klaus - 2021
Business climate indicators are used to receive early signals for turning points in the general business cycle. Therefore methods for the detection of turning points in time series are required. Estimations of slopes of a smooth component in the data can be calculated with local polynomial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013318975
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This is What the Us Leading Indicators Lead
Camacho, Maximo; Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel - 2021
We propose an optimal filter to transform the Conference Board Composite Leading Index (CLI) into recession probabilities in the US economy. We also analyze the CLI's accuracy at anticipating US output growth. We compare the predictive performance of linear, VAR extensions of smooth transition...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013320314
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In Search of Leading Indicators of Economic Activity in Germany
Bandholz, Harm; Funke, Michael - 2021
In this paper we present two new composite leading indicators of economic activity in Germany estimated using a dynamic factor model with and without regime switching. The obtained optimal inferences of business cycle turning points indicate that the two-state regime switching procedure leads to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013320780
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Detecting Turning Points in Global Economic Activity
Baumann, Ursel; GÌmez-Salvador, RamÌn; Seitz, Franz - 2021
We present non-linear models to capture the turning points in global economic activity as well as in advanced and emerging economies from 1980 to 2017. We first estimate Markov Switching models within a univariate framework. These models support the relevance of three business cycle regimes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013322231
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Crash landing : the inside story of how the world's biggest companies survived an economy on the brink
Hoffman, Liz - 2023 - First edition
"A kaleidoscopic account of the financial carnage of the pandemic, revealing the fear, grit, and gambles that drove the economy's winners and losers-from a leading Wall Street Journal reporter. The world's most powerful CEOs never saw it coming. In 2018, after a decade-long bull market, the CEO...
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Nowcasting business cycle turning points with stock networks and machine learning
Azqueta-Gavaldon, Andres; Hirschbühl, Dominik; … - 2020
We propose a granular framework that makes use of advanced statistical methods to approximate developments in economy-wide expected corporate earnings. In particular, we evaluate the dynamic network structure of stock returns in the United States as a proxy for the transmission of shocks through...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012316961
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Romania in the loop: an analysis of 155 years of business cycles in historical perspective
Grigoraș, Veaceslav; Orțan, David - 2020
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012387792
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Forecasting expected and unexpected losses
Juselius, Mikael; Tarashev, Nikola A. - 2020
Extending a standard credit-risk model illustrates that a single factor can drive both expected losses and the extent to which they may be exceeded in extreme scenarios, ie "unexpected losses." This leads us to develop a framework for forecasting these losses jointly. In an application to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012391488
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Flattening the recession curve : comparing initial fiscal responses to the Corona crisis across the EU
Redeker, Nils; Hainbach, Natascha - 2020
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012405511
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Forecasting expected and unexpected losses
Juselius, Mikael; Tarashev, Nikola A. - 2020
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V-, U-, L- or W-shaped economic recovery after COVID-19? : insights from an agent-based model
Sharma, Dhruv; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Gualdi, Stanislao; … - In: Covid economics : vetted and real-time papers (2020) 40, pp. 164-179
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The Upper Turning Point in the Austrian Business Cycle Theory
Evans, Anthony J. - 2019
This paper studies a scenario - one of the six problems with Austrian Business Cycle theory raised by Hummel (1979) - that the ABCT literature has paid little attention. Will a constant rate of credit expansion necessarily lead to a boom-bust cycle? We conclude that this scenario has two...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012899738
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Prévisions de l'activité économique en temps de crise
Kotchoni, Rachidi; Paquette-Dupuis, Manuel; … - 2019
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10011992285
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A new approach to dating the reference cycle
Camacho, Maximo; Gadea, María Dolores; Gómez-Loscos, Ana - 2019
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012012417
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Turning point and oscillatory cycles
Kulish, Mariano; Pagan, Adrian R. - 2019
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012224536
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Detecting turning points in global economic activity
Baumann, Ursel; Gómez Salvador, Ramón; Seitz, Franz - 2019
We present non-linear models to capture the turning points in global economic activity as well as in advanced and emerging economies from 1980 to 2017. We first estimate Markov Switching models within a univariate framework. These models support the relevance of three business cycle regimes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012059037
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Using credit variables to date business cycle and to estimate the probabilities of recession in real time
Aprigliano, Valentina; Liberati, Danilo - 2019
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012140098
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A new approach to dating the reference cycle
Camacho, Maximo; Gadea, María Dolores; Gómez-Loscos, Ana - In: Journal of business & economic statistics : JBES ; a … 40 (2022) 1, pp. 66-81
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The upper turning point in the Austrian business cycle theory
Evans, Anthony J.; Cachanosky, Nicolás; Thorpe, Robert - In: The review of Austrian economics 35 (2022) 1, pp. 89-97
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013166306
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Business cycle measurement in India
Pandey, Radhika; Patnaik, Ila; Shah, Ajay - 2018
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10011810248
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Dating COVID-induced recession in the U.S.
Li, Haixi; Sheng, Xuguang - In: Applied economics letters 28 (2021) 20, pp. 1723-1727
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Recovery from the Great Depression : The Farm Channel in Spring 1933
Hausman, Joshua - 2017
From March to July 1933, industrial production rose 57 percent. We show that an important source of recovery was the effect of dollar devaluation on farm prices, incomes, and consumption. Devaluation immediately raised traded crop prices, and auto sales grew more rapidly in states and counties...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012962727
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Forecasting the growth cycles of the Turkish economy
Özbilgin, H. Murat - 2017
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10011716344
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Recovery from the Great Depression : the farm channel in spring 1933
Hausman, Joshua K.; Rhode, Paul W.; Wieland, Johannes - 2017
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10011624141
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Econometric filters
Pollock, David Stephen G. - 2017
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10011581626
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Recovery from the Great Depression : The Farm Channel in Spring 1933
Hausman, Joshua K. - 2017
From March to July 1933, industrial production rose 57 percent. We show that an important source of recovery was the effect of dollar devaluation on farm prices, incomes, and consumption. Devaluation immediately raised traded crop prices, and auto sales grew more rapidly in states and counties...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012455510
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Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia : Formal Methods and Informal Choices
Smirnov, Sergey V. - 2016
This paper establishes a reference chronology for the Russian economic cycle from the early 1980s to mid-2015. To detect peaks and troughs, we tested nine monthly indices as reference series, three methods of seasonal adjustments (X-12-ARIMA, TRAMO/SEATS, and CAMPLET), and four methods for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013000716
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Predicting U.S. Business Cycle Turning Points Using Real-Time Diffusion Indexes Based on a Large Data Set
Stekler, H.O. - 2016
This paper considers the issue of predicting cyclical turning points using real-time diffusion indexes constructed using a large data set from March 2005 to September 2014. We construct diffusion indexes at the monthly frequency, compare several smoothing and signal extraction methods, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012983069
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Turning point detection with Bayesian panel Markov-switching VAR : 2016 edition
Casarin, Roberto (contributor);  … - European Commission / Statistical Office of the … - 2016 - 2016 edition
This paper proposes a panel Markov-Switching (MS-) VAR model suitable for a multi-country analysis of the business cycle. We study the business cycles fluctuations of a group of countries, analyse the transmission of shocks across cycles and predict the turning points of the country-specific...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015296340
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Der Einfluss der Entschuldung auf die Aktienmärkte : eine Analyse des Einflusses und der Herausforderungen für Investoren
Peter, Manuel - 2016
Die enorme Verschuldung der US-amerikanischen Haushalte in den ersten Jahren des Millenniums wird zumeist als eine Ursache für die Finanzkrise nach 2007 angesehen. Unterstützt durch die Politik, die möglichst vielen Haushalten zu einer Immobilie verhelfen sollte, erlebten die USA einen...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10011540647
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Forecasting Macedonian business cycle turning points using Qual VAR model
Petrovska, Magdalena; Krstevska, Aneta; Naumovski, Nikola - Narodna Banka na Republika Makedonija - 2016
This paper aims to assess the usefulness of leading indicators in business cycle research and forecast. Initially we test the predictive power of the ESI within a static probit model as a leading indicator, commonly perceived to be able to provide a reliable summary of the current economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10011623919
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Dating cyclical turning points for Russia : formal methods and informal choices
Smirnov, Sergej V.; Kondrashov, Nikolai V.; … - 2016
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10011550892
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Dating business cycles in India
Pandey, Radhika; Patnaik, Ila; Shah, Ajay - 2016
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10011537001
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The Duration of Economic Expansions and Recessions : More than Duration Dependence
Castroa, Vitor - 2016
One widespread idea in the business cycles literature is that the older is an expansion or contraction, the more likely it is to end. This paper tries to provide further empirical support for this idea of positive duration dependence and, at the same time, control for the effects of other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012707017
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Business Cycles and Structural Change in South Africa : An Integrated View
Boshoff, Willem H. (ed.) - 2020 - 1st ed. 2020.
Introduction -- Part I - Looking Back: What Do We Know About the South African Business Cycle? -- The South African Economy in the Twentieth Century -- Part II - The Financial Crisis and Its Impact on the Cycle: Business Cycle Recoveries - A Comparative View -- The Role of Institutional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012399370
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Business cycles and structural change in South Africa : an integrated view
Boshoff, Willem H. (ed.) - 2020
This book investigates the South African business cycle and its links to structural change in the economy. Against the backdrop of the democratic transition in 1994 and the global financial crisis, the authors study how business cycles in South Africa have changed and how cycles are related to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012172640
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Improved recession dating using stock market volatility
Huang, Yu-Fan; Startz, Richard - In: International journal of forecasting 36 (2020) 2, pp. 507-514
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012415194
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Identifying Turkish business cycle regimes in real time
Soybilgen, Barış - In: Applied economics letters 27 (2020) 1, pp. 62-66
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012205374
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Leading Indicators of the Business Cycle : Dynamic Logit Models for OECD Countries and Russia
Pestova, Anna - 2015
In this paper, I develop the leading indicators of the business cycle turning points exploiting the quarterly panel dataset comprising OECD countries and Russia over the 1980-2013 period. Contrasting to the previous studies, I combine data on OECD countries and Russia into a single dataset and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013023501
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Business cycle dating and properties
Grigoraş, Veaceslav; Stanciu, Irina Eusignia - 2015
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10011280865
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Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles
Aastveit, Knut Are; Jore, Anne Sofie; Ravazzolo, Francesco - 2015
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10010517994
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